Segunda División 2026-2027: Cadiz vs Sp Gijon Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Cadiz

Home Team
34%
VS

Sp Gijon

Away Team
36%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.3
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Sp Gijon

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Cadiz
Defense +4.1 Sp Gijon
Results & dominance +4.0 Sp Gijon
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.7 Sp Gijon
Attack +2.7 Sp Gijon

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Sp Gijon. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Sp Gijon attack & chance creation +1.4 Under
Cadiz defense +0.6 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.6 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Eibar 8 7 0 1 18 7 11 21
2 Castellon 8 6 2 0 15 3 12 20
3 Almeria 8 6 0 2 13 5 8 18
4 Girona 8 4 2 2 14 8 6 14
5 Mallorca 8 4 2 2 8 3 5 14
6 Burgos 8 4 2 2 12 9 3 14
7 Sabadell 8 3 4 1 8 6 2 13
8 Sp Gijon 8 4 1 3 8 8 0 13
9 Granada 8 3 2 3 13 13 0 11
10 Oviedo 8 3 2 3 8 8 0 11
11 Las Palmas 8 3 2 3 12 13 -1 11
12 Tenerife 8 3 2 3 10 12 -2 11
13 Leganes 8 3 2 3 6 11 -5 11
14 Valladolid 8 2 3 3 8 11 -3 9
15 Cordoba 8 3 0 5 13 18 -5 9
16 Sociedad B 8 2 2 4 11 13 -2 8
17 Eldense 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
18 Celta B 8 2 2 4 10 14 -4 8
19 Cadiz 8 1 4 3 11 10 1 7
20 Andorra 8 2 1 5 12 15 -3 7
21 Ceuta 8 1 2 5 7 18 -11 5
22 Albacete 8 0 1 7 5 15 -10 1

Recent Trends

Cadiz W D L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Leganes (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Tenerife (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Las Palmas (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Almeria (Goals: 2 - 3)

Sp Gijon W L W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Celta B (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Andorra (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Eldense (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cadiz

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.20
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.80
Clean Sheets 1

Sp Gijon

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.00
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Cadiz a 34% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Sp Gijon at 36%. This is a tight call, with Sp Gijon only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Cadiz arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (WDLLL from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. Sp Gijon arrive with 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (WLWLL from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 8 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Cadiz sit 19th with 7 points from 8 games and a goal difference of +1, while Sp Gijon are 8th with 13 points and a level goal difference. That puts Sp Gijon 6 points clear of their opponent. Cadiz average 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over their last five home games, while Sp Gijon average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Cadiz), defense (4.1 points toward Sp Gijon), results & dominance (4.0 points toward Sp Gijon). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cadiz
Goals in last 5 matches
Sp Gijon
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 52% and Over 2.5 at 48%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Cadiz matches produced 3.0 goals on average over their last 5, Sp Gijon matches 2.8. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Sp Gijon attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 1.4 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cadiz
Corners in last 5 matches
Sp Gijon
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.4 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cadiz
Shots in last 5 matches
Sp Gijon
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.3 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Cadiz wins by X goals. Negative = Sp Gijon wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Cadiz vs Sp Gijon with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Cadiz vs Sp Gijon
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Cadiz. The spread model gives 23% to a Cadiz win by two goals or more and 43% to any Sp Gijon win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Sp Gijon win (36%), Under 2.5 (52%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.4 corners and 24.3 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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