Segunda División 2026-2027: Castellon vs Ceuta Prediction - 4 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Castellon

Home Team
71%
VS

Ceuta

Away Team
10%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.3
Expected Spread: +1.0

Why the Model Leans Castellon

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +12.2 Castellon
Home advantage +11.1 Castellon
Defense +5.8 Castellon
Results & dominance +5.7 Castellon
Attack +3.2 Castellon

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 87% for Castellon. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +3.7 Over
Castellon attack & chance creation +2.7 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Ceuta defense +1.9 Over
Form & results +1.6 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 7 6 1 0 14 2 12 19
2 Eibar 7 6 0 1 15 6 9 18
3 Almeria 7 5 0 2 11 4 7 15
4 Burgos 7 4 2 1 11 7 4 14
5 Girona 7 4 1 2 14 8 6 13
6 Mallorca 7 4 1 2 8 3 5 13
7 Sabadell 7 3 3 1 8 6 2 12
8 Oviedo 7 3 2 2 7 4 3 11
9 Tenerife 7 3 2 2 8 9 -1 11
10 Leganes 7 3 2 2 6 7 -1 11
11 Las Palmas 7 3 1 3 10 11 -1 10
12 Sp Gijon 7 3 1 3 5 6 -1 10
13 Granada 7 2 2 3 10 11 -1 8
14 Sociedad B 7 2 2 3 9 10 -1 8
15 Celta B 7 2 2 3 8 11 -3 8
16 Valladolid 7 2 2 3 6 9 -3 8
17 Andorra 7 2 0 5 12 15 -3 6
18 Cordoba 7 2 0 5 10 16 -6 6
19 Eldense 7 1 2 4 4 9 -5 5
20 Cadiz 7 0 4 3 7 10 -3 4
21 Ceuta 7 1 1 5 6 17 -11 4
22 Albacete 7 0 1 6 4 12 -8 1

Recent Trends

Castellon W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Leganes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Tenerife (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Albacete (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Celta B (Goals: 2 - 1)

Ceuta W D L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Sociedad B (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Valladolid (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Burgos (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Celta B (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Castellon

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.00
Clean Sheets 3

Ceuta

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.67
Goals conceded (avg, away) 3.67
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Castellon a 71% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 19% and Ceuta at 10%. Castellon are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 49% of cases.

Match Analysis

Castellon arrive with 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WWWWW from most recent), scoring 13 and conceding 2 with 3 clean sheets. Ceuta arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (WDLLL from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 10 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Castellon sit 1st with 19 points from 7 games and a goal difference of +12, while Ceuta are 21st with 4 points and a goal difference of -11. That puts Castellon 15 points clear of their opponent. Castellon average 2.3 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Ceuta average 0.7 scored and 3.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to team strength (Elo & Glicko) (12.2 points toward Castellon), home advantage (11.1 points toward Castellon), defense (5.8 points toward Castellon). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Castellon
Goals in last 5 matches
Ceuta
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 52% and Over 2.5 at 48%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Castellon matches produced 3.0 goals on average over their last 5, Ceuta matches 3.0. Both teams to score comes in at 49%, no goal for at least one side at 51%. In the model's own attribution, rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) pulls toward Over by 3.7 points and Castellon attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 2.7 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Castellon
Corners in last 5 matches
Ceuta
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.4 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Castellon
Shots in last 5 matches
Ceuta
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.3 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Castellon wins by X goals. Negative = Ceuta wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Castellon vs Ceuta with expected spread of +1.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Castellon vs Ceuta
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 1.0 goals in favour of Castellon. The spread model gives 35% to a Castellon win by two goals or more and 28% to any Ceuta win. A Castellon win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Castellon win (71%), Under 2.5 (52%), No Goal (51%). Expected totals: 9.4 corners and 25.3 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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