Ceuta
Segunda División · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #11 of 22 in Segunda División 61 pts · 17W–10D–15L · GD -12
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Segunda División simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Ceuta?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Ceuta's results were 2.0% harder to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.
| Market | Ceuta | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 54.0% | 50.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 58.0% |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | 56.0% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Segunda División | #10 | 1478 | 1577 | 1545 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | vs Albacete | W Ceuta 37.2% · draw 32.0% | W ✓ |
| May 24, 2026 | at Andorra | L Ceuta 15.9% · draw 22.5% | W ✗ |
| May 16, 2026 | vs Malaga | L Ceuta 31.7% · draw 31.1% | L ✓ |
| May 09, 2026 | vs Castellon | L Ceuta 26.0% · draw 27.7% | D ✗ |
| May 03, 2026 | at Sp Gijon | L Ceuta 16.0% · draw 23.0% | W ✗ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs Santander | L Ceuta 31.5% · draw 29.5% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Zaragoza | L Ceuta 28.8% · draw 30.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vs Sociedad B | W Ceuta 53.2% · draw 25.0% | D ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Eibar | L Ceuta 18.3% · draw 25.5% | L ✓ |
| Apr 01, 2026 | at Burgos | L Ceuta 18.8% · draw 27.5% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
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