Ceuta
Segunda División · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #20 of 22 43.9 expected pts · currently 5 pts after 9 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Segunda División simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #11 of 22 in Segunda División 61 pts · 17W-10D-15L · GD -12
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Segunda División simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Ceuta?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Ceuta's results were 2.0% harder to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.
| Market | Ceuta | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 54.0% | 50.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 58.0% |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | 56.0% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Segunda División | #18 | 1521 | 1521 | 1452 |
| 2025-26 | Segunda División | #10 | 1478 | 1577 | 1545 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/ceuta">Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/segunda_division"
width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings · Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/ceuta">Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>