Segunda División 2026-2027: Castellon vs Tenerife Prediction - 19 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Castellon

Home Team
66%
VS

Tenerife

Away Team
12%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 41%
Under 2.5: 59%
Goal: 45%
No Goal: 55%
Expected Corners: 8.6
Expected Shots: 23.4
Expected Spread: +1.1

Why the Model Leans Castellon

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Castellon
Results & dominance +8.1 Castellon
Attack +5.2 Castellon
Defense +3.9 Castellon
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.6 Castellon

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 85% for Castellon. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Castellon defense +2.2 Under
Tenerife attack & chance creation +1.7 Under
Form & results +1.2 Under
Castellon attack & chance creation +0.6 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 5 4 1 0 7 2 5 13
2 Eibar 5 4 0 1 10 3 7 12
3 Mallorca 5 3 1 1 7 2 5 10
4 Tenerife 5 3 1 1 7 3 4 10
5 Las Palmas 5 3 1 1 7 6 1 10
6 Almeria 5 3 0 2 8 4 4 9
7 Oviedo 5 2 2 1 4 1 3 8
8 Burgos 5 2 2 1 8 6 2 8
9 Sociedad B 5 2 2 1 8 6 2 8
10 Granada 5 2 2 1 6 5 1 8
11 Sabadell 5 2 2 1 4 4 0 8
12 Leganes 5 2 2 1 3 3 0 8
13 Girona 5 2 1 2 10 7 3 7
14 Celta B 5 2 1 2 7 8 -1 7
15 Sp Gijon 5 2 1 2 2 3 -1 7
16 Eldense 5 1 2 2 3 6 -3 5
17 Valladolid 5 1 1 3 2 7 -5 4
18 Andorra 5 1 0 4 8 10 -2 3
19 Cadiz 5 0 3 2 5 7 -2 3
20 Cordoba 5 1 0 4 7 12 -5 3
21 Albacete 5 0 1 4 3 8 -5 1
22 Celta 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23 Sociedad 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24 Ceuta 5 0 0 5 2 15 -13 0

Recent Trends

Castellon W W W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Albacete (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Celta B (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sabadell (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sociedad B (Goals: 1 - 0)

Tenerife W D L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Leganes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sociedad B (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sp Gijon (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Almeria (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Eibar (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Castellon

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.00
Clean Sheets 3

Tenerife

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.00
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Castellon a 66% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 22% and Tenerife at 12%. Castellon are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 59% and sees both teams scoring in 45% of cases.

Match Analysis

Castellon arrive with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WWWDW from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 2 with 3 clean sheets. Tenerife arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WDLWW from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 3 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Castellon sit 1st with 13 points from 5 games and a goal difference of +5, while Tenerife are 4th with 10 points and a goal difference of +4. That puts Castellon 3 points clear of their opponent. Castellon average 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Tenerife average 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Castellon), results & dominance (8.1 points toward Castellon), attack (5.2 points toward Castellon). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Castellon
Goals in last 5 matches
Tenerife
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 59% and Over 2.5 at 41%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Castellon matches produced 1.8 goals on average over their last 5, Tenerife matches 2.0. Both teams to score comes in at 45%, no goal for at least one side at 55%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Castellon defense pulls toward Under by 2.2 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Castellon
Corners in last 5 matches
Tenerife
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 8.6 corners in total. The single most likely count is 8. The chance of 8 corners or fewer is 51%, which leaves 48% for 9 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Castellon
Shots in last 5 matches
Tenerife
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.4 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Castellon wins by X goals. Negative = Tenerife wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Castellon vs Tenerife with expected spread of +1.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Castellon vs Tenerife
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 1.1 goals in favour of Castellon. The spread model gives 36% to a Castellon win by two goals or more and 28% to any Tenerife win. A Castellon win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Castellon win (66%), Under 2.5 (59%), No Goal (55%). Expected totals: 8.6 corners and 23.4 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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