Segunda División 2026-2027: Ceuta vs Sabadell Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Ceuta

Home Team
36%
VS

Sabadell

Away Team
33%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.3
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Ceuta

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Ceuta
Results & dominance +3.9 Sabadell
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.8 Sabadell
Attack +2.2 Sabadell
Defense +1.2 Sabadell

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Ceuta. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Ceuta attack & chance creation +1.7 Over
Ceuta defense +1.7 Under
Sabadell defense +1.2 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Eibar 8 7 0 1 18 7 11 21
2 Castellon 8 6 2 0 15 3 12 20
3 Almeria 8 6 0 2 13 5 8 18
4 Girona 8 4 2 2 14 8 6 14
5 Mallorca 8 4 2 2 8 3 5 14
6 Burgos 8 4 2 2 12 9 3 14
7 Sabadell 8 3 4 1 8 6 2 13
8 Sp Gijon 8 4 1 3 8 8 0 13
9 Granada 8 3 2 3 13 13 0 11
10 Oviedo 8 3 2 3 8 8 0 11
11 Las Palmas 8 3 2 3 12 13 -1 11
12 Tenerife 8 3 2 3 10 12 -2 11
13 Leganes 8 3 2 3 6 11 -5 11
14 Valladolid 8 2 3 3 8 11 -3 9
15 Cordoba 8 3 0 5 13 18 -5 9
16 Sociedad B 8 2 2 4 11 13 -2 8
17 Eldense 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
18 Celta B 8 2 2 4 10 14 -4 8
19 Cadiz 8 1 4 3 11 10 1 7
20 Andorra 8 2 1 5 12 15 -3 7
21 Ceuta 8 1 2 5 7 18 -11 5
22 Albacete 8 0 1 7 5 15 -10 1

Recent Trends

Ceuta D W D L L

  • Last Match: D vs Castellon (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sociedad B (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Valladolid (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Burgos (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Celta B (Goals: 0 - 2)

Sabadell D D W L W

  • Last Match: D vs Andorra (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Celta B (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cordoba (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ceuta

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.50
Clean Sheets 0

Sabadell

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.25
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.75
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Ceuta a 36% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Sabadell at 33%. This is a tight call, with Ceuta only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 54% and sees both teams scoring in 53% of cases.

Match Analysis

Ceuta arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DWDLL from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 8 with 0 clean sheets. Sabadell arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DDWLW from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 6 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Ceuta sit 21st with 5 points from 8 games and a goal difference of -11, while Sabadell are 7th with 13 points and a goal difference of +2. That puts Sabadell 8 points clear of their opponent. Ceuta average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Sabadell average 0.2 scored and 0.8 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Ceuta), results & dominance (3.9 points toward Sabadell), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (3.8 points toward Sabadell). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ceuta
Goals in last 5 matches
Sabadell
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 54% and Over 2.5 at 46%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Ceuta matches produced 2.8 goals on average over their last 5, Sabadell matches 2.6. Both teams to score comes in at 53%, no goal for at least one side at 47%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Ceuta attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 1.7 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ceuta
Corners in last 5 matches
Sabadell
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.4 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ceuta
Shots in last 5 matches
Sabadell
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.3 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Ceuta wins by X goals. Negative = Sabadell wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Ceuta vs Sabadell with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Ceuta vs Sabadell
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Sabadell. The spread model gives 21% to a Ceuta win by two goals or more and 47% to any Sabadell win. A Sabadell win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Ceuta win (36%), Under 2.5 (54%), Goal (53%). Expected totals: 9.4 corners and 25.3 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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