Sabadell
Segunda División · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #5 of 22 64.2 expected pts · currently 16 pts after 9 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Segunda División simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Sabadell?
Sample still small 2026-27 · 2 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Sabadell's results were 8.6% harder to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.
| Market | Sabadell | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 50.0% | 61.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 0.0% | 41.0% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 48.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Segunda División | #8 | 1510 | 1575 | 1575 |
| 2020-21 | Segunda División | #13 | 1488 | 1524 | 1508 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | at Ceuta | L Sabadell 32.8% · draw 31.1% | W ✗ |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Real Oviedo | W Sabadell 36.9% · draw 31.2% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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