Segunda División 2026-2027: Ceuta vs Valladolid Prediction - 20 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Ceuta

Home Team
37%
VS

Valladolid

Away Team
32%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 48%
No Goal: 52%
Expected Corners: 8.8
Expected Shots: 23.5
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Ceuta

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Ceuta
Results & dominance +3.6 Valladolid
Defense +3.4 Valladolid
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.9 Valladolid

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Ceuta. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Valladolid attack & chance creation +2.3 Under
Form & results +1.7 Over
Ceuta defense +0.6 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 5 4 1 0 7 2 5 13
2 Eibar 5 4 0 1 10 3 7 12
3 Mallorca 5 3 1 1 7 2 5 10
4 Tenerife 5 3 1 1 7 3 4 10
5 Las Palmas 5 3 1 1 7 6 1 10
6 Almeria 5 3 0 2 8 4 4 9
7 Oviedo 5 2 2 1 4 1 3 8
8 Burgos 5 2 2 1 8 6 2 8
9 Sociedad B 5 2 2 1 8 6 2 8
10 Granada 5 2 2 1 6 5 1 8
11 Sabadell 5 2 2 1 4 4 0 8
12 Leganes 5 2 2 1 3 3 0 8
13 Girona 5 2 1 2 10 7 3 7
14 Celta B 5 2 1 2 7 8 -1 7
15 Sp Gijon 5 2 1 2 2 3 -1 7
16 Eldense 5 1 2 2 3 6 -3 5
17 Valladolid 5 1 1 3 2 7 -5 4
18 Andorra 5 1 0 4 8 10 -2 3
19 Cadiz 5 0 3 2 5 7 -2 3
20 Cordoba 5 1 0 4 7 12 -5 3
21 Albacete 5 0 1 4 3 8 -5 1
22 Celta 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23 Sociedad 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24 Ceuta 5 0 0 5 2 15 -13 0

Recent Trends

Ceuta L L L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Burgos (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Celta B (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Las Palmas (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Andorra (Goals: 1 - 5)

Valladolid L W D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Andorra (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Cadiz (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Eibar (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ceuta

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.00
Clean Sheets 0

Valladolid

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.33
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Ceuta a 37% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Valladolid at 32%. This is a tight call, with Ceuta only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 54% and sees both teams scoring in 48% of cases.

Match Analysis

Ceuta arrive with 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLLLL from most recent), scoring 2 and conceding 15 with 0 clean sheets. Valladolid arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWDLL from most recent), scoring 2 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Ceuta sit 24th with 0 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -13, while Valladolid are 17th with 4 points and a goal difference of -5. That puts Valladolid 4 points clear of their opponent. Ceuta average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Valladolid average 0.3 scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Ceuta), results & dominance (3.6 points toward Valladolid), defense (3.4 points toward Valladolid). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ceuta
Goals in last 5 matches
Valladolid
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 54% and Over 2.5 at 46%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Ceuta matches produced 3.4 goals on average over their last 5, Valladolid matches 1.8. Both teams to score comes in at 48%, no goal for at least one side at 52%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Valladolid attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 2.3 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ceuta
Corners in last 5 matches
Valladolid
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 8.8 corners in total. The single most likely count is 8. The chance of 8 corners or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 9 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ceuta
Shots in last 5 matches
Valladolid
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.5 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 51%, which leaves 48% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Ceuta wins by X goals. Negative = Valladolid wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Ceuta vs Valladolid with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Ceuta vs Valladolid
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Valladolid. The spread model gives 21% to a Ceuta win by two goals or more and 45% to any Valladolid win. A Valladolid win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Ceuta win (37%), Under 2.5 (54%), No Goal (52%). Expected totals: 8.8 corners and 23.5 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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