Segunda División 2026-2027: Eibar vs Las Palmas Prediction - 27 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Eibar

Home Team
45%
VS

Las Palmas

Away Team
25%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 42%
Under 2.5: 58%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.9
Expected Spread: +0.5

Why the Model Leans Eibar

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Eibar
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.9 Eibar
Defense +4.3 Las Palmas
Results & dominance +2.2 Las Palmas
Attack +1.3 Eibar

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 64% for Eibar. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Eibar attack & chance creation +2.8 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Form & results +2.5 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 6 5 1 0 12 2 10 16
2 Eibar 6 5 0 1 12 4 8 15
3 Mallorca 6 4 1 1 8 2 6 13
4 Almeria 6 4 0 2 10 4 6 12
5 Burgos 6 3 2 1 10 7 3 11
6 Sabadell 6 3 2 1 7 5 2 11
7 Leganes 6 3 2 1 6 5 1 11
8 Girona 6 3 1 2 12 8 4 10
9 Sp Gijon 6 3 1 2 5 4 1 10
10 Las Palmas 6 3 1 2 8 8 0 10
11 Tenerife 6 3 1 2 7 8 -1 10
12 Sociedad B 6 2 2 2 8 7 1 8
13 Oviedo 6 2 2 2 5 4 1 8
14 Granada 6 2 2 2 8 8 0 8
15 Celta B 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
16 Cordoba 6 2 0 4 9 13 -4 6
17 Eldense 6 1 2 3 4 8 -4 5
18 Valladolid 6 1 2 3 3 8 -5 5
19 Cadiz 6 0 3 3 6 9 -3 3
20 Andorra 6 1 0 5 9 13 -4 3
21 Albacete 6 0 1 5 4 10 -6 1
22 Ceuta 6 0 1 5 3 16 -13 1
23 Celta 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24 Sociedad 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Recent Trends

Eibar W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Eldense (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Celta B (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Granada (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Andorra (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Valladolid (Goals: 1 - 0)

Las Palmas L W D L W

  • Last Match: L vs Burgos (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cadiz (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Leganes (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Ceuta (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Eibar

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.67
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 4

Las Palmas

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.67
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.67
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Eibar a 45% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Las Palmas at 25%. Eibar are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 58% and sees both teams scoring in 50% of cases.

Match Analysis

Eibar arrive with 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WWWWW from most recent), scoring 11 and conceding 1 with 4 clean sheets. Las Palmas arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWDLW from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 7 with 3 clean sheets. In the table Eibar sit 2nd with 15 points from 6 games and a goal difference of +8, while Las Palmas are 10th with 10 points and a level goal difference. That puts Eibar 5 points clear of their opponent. Eibar average 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Las Palmas average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Eibar), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (5.9 points toward Eibar), defense (4.3 points toward Las Palmas). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Eibar
Goals in last 5 matches
Las Palmas
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 58% and Over 2.5 at 42%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Eibar matches produced 2.4 goals on average over their last 5, Las Palmas matches 2.6. Both teams to score comes in at 50%, no goal for at least one side at 50%. In the model's own attribution, Eibar attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 2.8 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Eibar
Corners in last 5 matches
Las Palmas
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.6 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Eibar
Shots in last 5 matches
Las Palmas
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.9 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Eibar wins by X goals. Negative = Las Palmas wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Eibar vs Las Palmas with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Eibar vs Las Palmas
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.5 goals in favour of Eibar. The spread model gives 29% to a Eibar win by two goals or more and 36% to any Las Palmas win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Eibar win (45%), Under 2.5 (58%), Goal (50%). Expected totals: 9.6 corners and 24.9 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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