Las Palmas
Segunda División · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #5 of 22 in Segunda División 73 pts · 20W–13D–9L · GD +17
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Segunda División simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Las Palmas?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Las Palmas's results were 5.3% easier to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.
| Market | Las Palmas | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 51.3% | 50.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | 58.0% |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | 56.0% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Segunda División | #4 | 1498 | 1620 | 1620 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | #19 | 1498 | 1516 | 1342 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | #18 | 1498 | 1550 | 1373 |
| 2022-23 | Segunda División | #2 | 1616 | 1685 | 1611 |
| 2021-22 | Segunda División | #2 | 1512 | 1652 | 1652 |
| 2020-21 | Segunda División | #10 | 1518 | 1576 | 1514 |
| 2019-20 | Segunda División | #6 | 1458 | 1567 | 1549 |
| 2018-19 | Segunda División | #16 | 1517 | 1576 | 1477 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | #20 | 1482 | 1506 | 1266 |
| 2016-17 | La Liga | #18 | 1533 | 1552 | 1347 |
| 2015-16 | La Liga | #9 | 1482 | 1541 | 1475 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | at La Coruna | L Las Palmas 20.2% · draw 26.9% | W ✗ |
| May 24, 2026 | vs Zaragoza | W Las Palmas 58.0% · draw 24.0% | D ✗ |
| May 16, 2026 | at Almeria | L Las Palmas 26.7% · draw 27.7% | W ✗ |
| May 10, 2026 | at Andorra | L Las Palmas 30.8% · draw 31.2% | L ✓ |
| May 03, 2026 | vs Valladolid | W Las Palmas 56.8% · draw 25.7% | W ✓ |
| Apr 27, 2026 | at Cadiz | W Las Palmas 47.0% · draw 26.5% | W ✓ |
| Apr 17, 2026 | vs Leganes | W Las Palmas 58.0% · draw 25.1% | W ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Malaga | L Las Palmas 33.3% · draw 31.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | vs Huesca | W Las Palmas 71.1% · draw 17.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 02, 2026 | vs Granada | W Las Palmas 55.2% · draw 25.9% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
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