Segunda División 2026-2027: Girona vs Albacete Prediction - 25 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Girona

Home Team
64%
VS

Albacete

Away Team
15%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.4
Expected Spread: +0.8

Why the Model Leans Girona

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Girona
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +8.5 Girona
Attack +5.1 Girona
Defense +3.4 Girona
Results & dominance +2.3 Girona

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 81% for Girona. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Albacete defense +1.6 Over
Girona defense +1.2 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.8 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 50% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 6 5 1 0 12 2 10 16
2 Eibar 6 5 0 1 12 4 8 15
3 Mallorca 6 4 1 1 8 2 6 13
4 Almeria 6 4 0 2 10 4 6 12
5 Burgos 6 3 2 1 10 7 3 11
6 Sabadell 6 3 2 1 7 5 2 11
7 Leganes 6 3 2 1 6 5 1 11
8 Girona 6 3 1 2 12 8 4 10
9 Sp Gijon 6 3 1 2 5 4 1 10
10 Las Palmas 6 3 1 2 8 8 0 10
11 Tenerife 6 3 1 2 7 8 -1 10
12 Sociedad B 6 2 2 2 8 7 1 8
13 Oviedo 6 2 2 2 5 4 1 8
14 Granada 6 2 2 2 8 8 0 8
15 Celta B 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
16 Cordoba 6 2 0 4 9 13 -4 6
17 Eldense 6 1 2 3 4 8 -4 5
18 Valladolid 6 1 2 3 3 8 -5 5
19 Cadiz 6 0 3 3 6 9 -3 3
20 Andorra 6 1 0 5 9 13 -4 3
21 Albacete 6 0 1 5 4 10 -6 1
22 Ceuta 6 0 1 5 3 16 -13 1
23 Celta 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24 Sociedad 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Recent Trends

Girona W L W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Cadiz (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Castellon (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sp Gijon (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Las Palmas (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Cordoba (Goals: 1 - 2)

Albacete L D L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Cordoba (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Granada (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Castellon (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sociedad B (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Girona

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.67
Clean Sheets 1

Albacete

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.67
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.67
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Girona a 64% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 22% and Albacete at 15%. Girona are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 50% and sees both teams scoring in 50% of cases.

Match Analysis

Girona arrive with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WLWWL from most recent), scoring 11 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. Albacete arrive with 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDLLL from most recent), scoring 3 and conceding 8 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Girona sit 8th with 10 points from 6 games and a goal difference of +4, while Albacete are 21st with 1 point and a goal difference of -6. That puts Girona 9 points clear of their opponent. Girona average 2.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five home games, while Albacete average 0.7 scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Girona), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (8.5 points toward Girona), attack (5.1 points toward Girona). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Girona
Goals in last 5 matches
Albacete
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 50% and Over 2.5 at 50%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Girona matches produced 3.6 goals on average over their last 5, Albacete matches 2.2. Both teams to score comes in at 50%, no goal for at least one side at 50%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Albacete defense pulls toward Over by 1.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Girona
Corners in last 5 matches
Albacete
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.4 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Girona
Shots in last 5 matches
Albacete
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.4 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Girona wins by X goals. Negative = Albacete wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Girona vs Albacete with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Girona vs Albacete
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.8 goals in favour of Girona. The spread model gives 33% to a Girona win by two goals or more and 31% to any Albacete win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Girona win (64%), Over 2.5 (50%), Goal (50%). Expected totals: 9.4 corners and 24.4 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel