Segunda División 2026-2027: Girona vs Mallorca Prediction - 4 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Girona

Home Team
42%
VS

Mallorca

Away Team
27%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 42%
Under 2.5: 58%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 24.7
Expected Spread: +0.4

Why the Model Leans Girona

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Girona
Attack +2.3 Girona
Defense +2.1 Mallorca
Results & dominance +1.0 Mallorca
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +0.5 Mallorca

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 60% for Girona. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Form & results +2.1 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +2.0 Under
Girona defense +1.9 Over
Mallorca attack & chance creation +1.9 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 7 6 1 0 14 2 12 19
2 Eibar 7 6 0 1 15 6 9 18
3 Almeria 7 5 0 2 11 4 7 15
4 Burgos 7 4 2 1 11 7 4 14
5 Girona 7 4 1 2 14 8 6 13
6 Mallorca 7 4 1 2 8 3 5 13
7 Sabadell 7 3 3 1 8 6 2 12
8 Oviedo 7 3 2 2 7 4 3 11
9 Tenerife 7 3 2 2 8 9 -1 11
10 Leganes 7 3 2 2 6 7 -1 11
11 Las Palmas 7 3 1 3 10 11 -1 10
12 Sp Gijon 7 3 1 3 5 6 -1 10
13 Granada 7 2 2 3 10 11 -1 8
14 Sociedad B 7 2 2 3 9 10 -1 8
15 Celta B 7 2 2 3 8 11 -3 8
16 Valladolid 7 2 2 3 6 9 -3 8
17 Andorra 7 2 0 5 12 15 -3 6
18 Cordoba 7 2 0 5 10 16 -6 6
19 Eldense 7 1 2 4 4 9 -5 5
20 Cadiz 7 0 4 3 7 10 -3 4
21 Ceuta 7 1 1 5 6 17 -11 4
22 Albacete 7 0 1 6 4 12 -8 1

Recent Trends

Girona W W L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Albacete (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cadiz (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Castellon (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sp Gijon (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Las Palmas (Goals: 5 - 2)

Mallorca L W W D W

  • Last Match: L vs Almeria (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sociedad B (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sabadell (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Eldense (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Ceuta (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Girona

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.25
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.25
Clean Sheets 2

Mallorca

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.67
Clean Sheets 4

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Girona a 42% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Mallorca at 27%. This is a tight call, with Girona only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 58% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Girona arrive with 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WWLWW from most recent), scoring 12 and conceding 5 with 2 clean sheets. Mallorca arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (LWWDW from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 1 with 4 clean sheets. In the table Girona sit 5th with 13 points from 7 games and a goal difference of +6, while Mallorca are 6th with 13 points and a goal difference of +5. The two sides are level on points. Girona average 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five home games, while Mallorca average 0.3 scored and 0.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Girona), attack (2.3 points toward Girona), defense (2.1 points toward Mallorca). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Girona
Goals in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 58% and Over 2.5 at 42%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Girona matches produced 3.4 goals on average over their last 5, Mallorca matches 1.4. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and form & results pulls toward Under by 2.1 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Girona
Corners in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.2 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 56%, which leaves 44% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Girona
Shots in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.7 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Girona wins by X goals. Negative = Mallorca wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Girona vs Mallorca with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Girona vs Mallorca
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.4 goals in favour of Girona. The spread model gives 27% to a Girona win by two goals or more and 38% to any Mallorca win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Girona win (42%), Under 2.5 (58%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.2 corners and 24.7 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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