Segunda División 2026-2027: Las Palmas vs Burgos Prediction - 20 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Las Palmas

Home Team
46%
VS

Burgos

Away Team
25%
Draw: 29%
Over 2.5: 42%
Under 2.5: 58%
Goal: 47%
No Goal: 53%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 23.0
Expected Spread: +0.3

Why the Model Leans Las Palmas

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Las Palmas
Defense +1.9 Las Palmas
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.6 Las Palmas
Results & dominance +1.2 Burgos

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 65% for Las Palmas. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Las Palmas attack & chance creation +4.1 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Burgos attack & chance creation +2.5 Under
Burgos defense +1.8 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.7 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 5 4 1 0 7 2 5 13
2 Eibar 5 4 0 1 10 3 7 12
3 Mallorca 5 3 1 1 7 2 5 10
4 Tenerife 5 3 1 1 7 3 4 10
5 Las Palmas 5 3 1 1 7 6 1 10
6 Almeria 5 3 0 2 8 4 4 9
7 Oviedo 5 2 2 1 4 1 3 8
8 Burgos 5 2 2 1 8 6 2 8
9 Sociedad B 5 2 2 1 8 6 2 8
10 Granada 5 2 2 1 6 5 1 8
11 Sabadell 5 2 2 1 4 4 0 8
12 Leganes 5 2 2 1 3 3 0 8
13 Girona 5 2 1 2 10 7 3 7
14 Celta B 5 2 1 2 7 8 -1 7
15 Sp Gijon 5 2 1 2 2 3 -1 7
16 Eldense 5 1 2 2 3 6 -3 5
17 Valladolid 5 1 1 3 2 7 -5 4
18 Andorra 5 1 0 4 8 10 -2 3
19 Cadiz 5 0 3 2 5 7 -2 3
20 Cordoba 5 1 0 4 7 12 -5 3
21 Albacete 5 0 1 4 3 8 -5 1
22 Celta 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23 Sociedad 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24 Ceuta 5 0 0 5 2 15 -13 0

Recent Trends

Las Palmas W D L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Cadiz (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Leganes (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ceuta (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Albacete (Goals: 2 - 1)

Burgos W D D L W

  • Last Match: W vs Ceuta (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sociedad B (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sp Gijon (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cordoba (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Las Palmas

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.50
Clean Sheets 3

Burgos

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.50
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Las Palmas a 46% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 29% and Burgos at 25%. Las Palmas are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 58% and sees both teams scoring in 47% of cases.

Match Analysis

Las Palmas arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WDLWW from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 6 with 3 clean sheets. Burgos arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WDDLW from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 6 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Las Palmas sit 5th with 10 points from 5 games and a goal difference of +1, while Burgos are 8th with 8 points and a goal difference of +2. That puts Las Palmas 2 points clear of their opponent. Las Palmas average 1.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Burgos average 0.0 scored and 0.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Las Palmas), defense (1.9 points toward Las Palmas), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (1.6 points toward Las Palmas). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Las Palmas
Goals in last 5 matches
Burgos
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 58% and Over 2.5 at 42%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Las Palmas matches produced 2.6 goals on average over their last 5, Burgos matches 2.8. Both teams to score comes in at 47%, no goal for at least one side at 53%. In the model's own attribution, Las Palmas attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 4.1 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Las Palmas
Corners in last 5 matches
Burgos
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.1 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 57%, which leaves 43% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Las Palmas
Shots in last 5 matches
Burgos
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.0 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 22. The chance of 22 shots or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 23 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Las Palmas wins by X goals. Negative = Burgos wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Las Palmas vs Burgos with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Las Palmas vs Burgos
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.3 goals in favour of Las Palmas. The spread model gives 27% to a Las Palmas win by two goals or more and 38% to any Burgos win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Las Palmas win (46%), Under 2.5 (58%), No Goal (53%). Expected totals: 9.1 corners and 23.0 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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