Segunda División 2026-2027: Leganes vs Castellon Prediction - 28 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Leganes

Home Team
28%
VS

Castellon

Away Team
44%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 25.1
Expected Spread: -0.5

Why the Model Leans Castellon

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Leganes
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +7.7 Castellon
Results & dominance +6.6 Castellon
Defense +6.0 Castellon
Attack +4.2 Castellon

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Castellon. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Castellon attack & chance creation +3.3 Over
Leganes attack & chance creation +2.8 Under
Form & results +2.8 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Leganes defense +1.4 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 6 5 1 0 12 2 10 16
2 Eibar 6 5 0 1 12 4 8 15
3 Mallorca 6 4 1 1 8 2 6 13
4 Almeria 6 4 0 2 10 4 6 12
5 Burgos 6 3 2 1 10 7 3 11
6 Sabadell 6 3 2 1 7 5 2 11
7 Leganes 6 3 2 1 6 5 1 11
8 Girona 6 3 1 2 12 8 4 10
9 Sp Gijon 6 3 1 2 5 4 1 10
10 Las Palmas 6 3 1 2 8 8 0 10
11 Tenerife 6 3 1 2 7 8 -1 10
12 Sociedad B 6 2 2 2 8 7 1 8
13 Oviedo 6 2 2 2 5 4 1 8
14 Granada 6 2 2 2 8 8 0 8
15 Celta B 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
16 Cordoba 6 2 0 4 9 13 -4 6
17 Eldense 6 1 2 3 4 8 -4 5
18 Valladolid 6 1 2 3 3 8 -5 5
19 Cadiz 6 0 3 3 6 9 -3 3
20 Andorra 6 1 0 5 9 13 -4 3
21 Albacete 6 0 1 5 4 10 -6 1
22 Ceuta 6 0 1 5 3 16 -13 1
23 Celta 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24 Sociedad 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Recent Trends

Leganes W L D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Granada (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Tenerife (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Las Palmas (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Eldense (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 1 - 0)

Castellon W W W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Tenerife (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Albacete (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Celta B (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sabadell (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leganes

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 3

Castellon

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.67
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.67
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Leganes a 28% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 28% and Castellon at 44%. This is a tight call, with Castellon only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 54% and sees both teams scoring in 54% of cases.

Match Analysis

Leganes arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WLDWW from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 4 with 3 clean sheets. Castellon arrive with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WWWWD from most recent), scoring 11 and conceding 2 with 3 clean sheets. In the table Leganes sit 7th with 11 points from 6 games and a goal difference of +1, while Castellon are 1st with 16 points and a goal difference of +10. That puts Castellon 5 points clear of their opponent. Leganes average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Castellon average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Leganes), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (7.7 points toward Castellon), results & dominance (6.6 points toward Castellon). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Leganes
Goals in last 5 matches
Castellon
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 54% and Over 2.5 at 46%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Leganes matches produced 1.8 goals on average over their last 5, Castellon matches 2.6. Both teams to score comes in at 54%, no goal for at least one side at 46%. In the model's own attribution, Castellon attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 3.3 points and Leganes attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 2.8 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Leganes
Corners in last 5 matches
Castellon
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.1 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 57%, which leaves 43% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Leganes
Shots in last 5 matches
Castellon
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.1 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Leganes wins by X goals. Negative = Castellon wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Leganes vs Castellon with expected spread of -0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Leganes vs Castellon
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.5 goals in favour of Castellon. The spread model gives 17% to a Leganes win by two goals or more and 52% to any Castellon win. A Castellon win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Castellon win (44%), Under 2.5 (54%), Goal (54%). Expected totals: 9.1 corners and 25.1 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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