Segunda División 2026-2027: Mallorca vs Las Palmas Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Mallorca

Home Team
56%
VS

Las Palmas

Away Team
17%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.5
Expected Spread: +0.6

Why the Model Leans Mallorca

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Mallorca
Defense +5.7 Mallorca
Attack +5.1 Mallorca
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.3 Mallorca
Results & dominance +1.3 Mallorca

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 77% for Mallorca. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Mallorca attack & chance creation +1.8 Under
Las Palmas defense +1.2 Over
Form & results +0.6 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Eibar 8 7 0 1 18 7 11 21
2 Castellon 8 6 2 0 15 3 12 20
3 Almeria 8 6 0 2 13 5 8 18
4 Girona 8 4 2 2 14 8 6 14
5 Mallorca 8 4 2 2 8 3 5 14
6 Burgos 8 4 2 2 12 9 3 14
7 Sabadell 8 3 4 1 8 6 2 13
8 Sp Gijon 8 4 1 3 8 8 0 13
9 Granada 8 3 2 3 13 13 0 11
10 Oviedo 8 3 2 3 8 8 0 11
11 Las Palmas 8 3 2 3 12 13 -1 11
12 Tenerife 8 3 2 3 10 12 -2 11
13 Leganes 8 3 2 3 6 11 -5 11
14 Valladolid 8 2 3 3 8 11 -3 9
15 Cordoba 8 3 0 5 13 18 -5 9
16 Sociedad B 8 2 2 4 11 13 -2 8
17 Eldense 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
18 Celta B 8 2 2 4 10 14 -4 8
19 Cadiz 8 1 4 3 11 10 1 7
20 Andorra 8 2 1 5 12 15 -3 7
21 Ceuta 8 1 2 5 7 18 -11 5
22 Albacete 8 0 1 7 5 15 -10 1

Recent Trends

Mallorca D L W W D

  • Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Almeria (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sociedad B (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sabadell (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Eldense (Goals: 0 - 0)

Las Palmas D L L W D

  • Last Match: D vs Valladolid (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Eibar (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Burgos (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cadiz (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Leganes (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Mallorca

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.75
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.25
Clean Sheets 4

Las Palmas

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.75
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Mallorca a 56% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 27% and Las Palmas at 17%. Mallorca are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 54% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Mallorca arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DLWWD from most recent), scoring 3 and conceding 1 with 4 clean sheets. Las Palmas arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLLWD from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 7 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Mallorca sit 5th with 14 points from 8 games and a goal difference of +5, while Las Palmas are 11th with 11 points and a goal difference of -1. That puts Mallorca 3 points clear of their opponent. Mallorca average 1.8 goals scored and 0.2 conceded over their last five home games, while Las Palmas average 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Mallorca), defense (5.7 points toward Mallorca), attack (5.1 points toward Mallorca). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Mallorca
Goals in last 5 matches
Las Palmas
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 54% and Over 2.5 at 46%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Mallorca matches produced 0.8 goals on average over their last 5, Las Palmas matches 2.6. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Mallorca attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 1.8 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Mallorca
Corners in last 5 matches
Las Palmas
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.4 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Mallorca
Shots in last 5 matches
Las Palmas
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.5 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Mallorca wins by X goals. Negative = Las Palmas wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Mallorca vs Las Palmas with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Mallorca vs Las Palmas
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.6 goals in favour of Mallorca. The spread model gives 30% to a Mallorca win by two goals or more and 34% to any Las Palmas win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Mallorca win (56%), Under 2.5 (54%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.4 corners and 24.5 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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