Segunda División 2026-2027: Real Oviedo vs Eibar Prediction - 12 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Real Oviedo

Home Team
40%
VS

Eibar

Away Team
29%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 26.5
Expected Spread: +0.5

Why the Model Leans Real Oviedo

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Real Oviedo
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +6.6 Eibar
Defense +1.4 Real Oviedo

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Real Oviedo. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Eibar defense +2.1 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +2.0 Under
Real Oviedo defense +1.6 Under
Form & results +0.9 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Eibar 8 7 0 1 18 7 11 21
2 Castellon 8 6 2 0 15 3 12 20
3 Almeria 8 6 0 2 13 5 8 18
4 Girona 8 4 2 2 14 8 6 14
5 Mallorca 8 4 2 2 8 3 5 14
6 Burgos 8 4 2 2 12 9 3 14
7 Sabadell 8 3 4 1 8 6 2 13
8 Sp Gijon 8 4 1 3 8 8 0 13
9 Granada 8 3 2 3 13 13 0 11
10 Oviedo 8 3 2 3 8 8 0 11
11 Las Palmas 8 3 2 3 12 13 -1 11
12 Tenerife 8 3 2 3 10 12 -2 11
13 Leganes 8 3 2 3 6 11 -5 11
14 Valladolid 8 2 3 3 8 11 -3 9
15 Cordoba 8 3 0 5 13 18 -5 9
16 Sociedad B 8 2 2 4 11 13 -2 8
17 Eldense 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
18 Celta B 8 2 2 4 10 14 -4 8
19 Cadiz 8 1 4 3 11 10 1 7
20 Andorra 8 2 1 5 12 15 -3 7
21 Ceuta 8 1 2 5 7 18 -11 5
22 Albacete 8 0 1 7 5 15 -10 1

Recent Trends

Real Oviedo L W L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Eldense (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sp Gijon (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sabadell (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Valladolid (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Burgos (Goals: 0 - 0)

Eibar W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Albacete (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Las Palmas (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Eldense (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Celta B (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Granada (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Real Oviedo

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.25
Clean Sheets 3

Eibar

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.50
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Oviedo a 40% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Eibar at 29%. This is a tight call, with Oviedo only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 56% and sees both teams scoring in 55% of cases.

Match Analysis

Oviedo arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWLWD from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 7 with 3 clean sheets. Eibar arrive with 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WWWWW from most recent), scoring 15 and conceding 4 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Oviedo sit 10th with 11 points from 8 games and a level goal difference, while Eibar are 1st with 21 points and a goal difference of +11. That puts Eibar 10 points clear of their opponent. Oviedo average 0.5 goals scored and 0.2 conceded over their last five home games, while Eibar average 2.5 scored and 0.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Oviedo), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (6.6 points toward Eibar), defense (1.4 points toward Oviedo). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Real Oviedo
Goals in last 5 matches
Eibar
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 56% and Over 2.5 at 44%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Oviedo matches produced 2.8 goals on average over their last 5, Eibar matches 3.8. Both teams to score comes in at 55%, no goal for at least one side at 45%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Eibar defense pulls toward Over by 2.1 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Real Oviedo
Corners in last 5 matches
Eibar
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.6 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 51%, which leaves 48% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Real Oviedo
Shots in last 5 matches
Eibar
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 26.5 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 26. The chance of 26 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 27 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Real Oviedo wins by X goals. Negative = Eibar wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Real Oviedo vs Eibar with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Real Oviedo vs Eibar
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.5 goals in favour of Oviedo. The spread model gives 28% to a Oviedo win by two goals or more and 36% to any Eibar win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Oviedo win (40%), Under 2.5 (56%), Goal (55%). Expected totals: 9.6 corners and 26.5 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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