Segunda División 2026-2027: Sociedad B vs Granada Prediction - 4 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Sociedad B

Home Team
36%
VS

Granada

Away Team
32%
Draw: 32%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 25.1
Expected Spread: -0.3

Why the Model Leans Sociedad B

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Sociedad B
Results & dominance +4.3 Granada
Attack +3.0 Granada
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +0.9 Granada

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Sociedad B. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Granada attack & chance creation +2.2 Over
Sociedad B attack & chance creation +1.5 Under
Granada defense +0.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 7 6 1 0 14 2 12 19
2 Eibar 7 6 0 1 15 6 9 18
3 Almeria 7 5 0 2 11 4 7 15
4 Burgos 7 4 2 1 11 7 4 14
5 Girona 7 4 1 2 14 8 6 13
6 Mallorca 7 4 1 2 8 3 5 13
7 Sabadell 7 3 3 1 8 6 2 12
8 Oviedo 7 3 2 2 7 4 3 11
9 Tenerife 7 3 2 2 8 9 -1 11
10 Leganes 7 3 2 2 6 7 -1 11
11 Las Palmas 7 3 1 3 10 11 -1 10
12 Sp Gijon 7 3 1 3 5 6 -1 10
13 Granada 7 2 2 3 10 11 -1 8
14 Sociedad B 7 2 2 3 9 10 -1 8
15 Celta B 7 2 2 3 8 11 -3 8
16 Valladolid 7 2 2 3 6 9 -3 8
17 Andorra 7 2 0 5 12 15 -3 6
18 Cordoba 7 2 0 5 10 16 -6 6
19 Eldense 7 1 2 4 4 9 -5 5
20 Cadiz 7 0 4 3 7 10 -3 4
21 Ceuta 7 1 1 5 6 17 -11 4
22 Albacete 7 0 1 6 4 12 -8 1

Recent Trends

Sociedad B L L W D D

  • Last Match: L vs Ceuta (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Andorra (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Tenerife (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Burgos (Goals: 2 - 2)

Granada L L D L W

  • Last Match: L vs Andorra (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Leganes (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Albacete (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Eibar (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cordoba (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sociedad B

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 0

Granada

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.25
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.75
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Sociedad B a 36% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 32% and Granada at 32%. This is a tight call, with Sociedad B only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 56% of cases.

Match Analysis

Sociedad B arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLWDD from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 8 with 0 clean sheets. Granada arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLDLW from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 11 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Sociedad B sit 14th with 8 points from 7 games and a goal difference of -1, while Granada are 13th with 8 points and a goal difference of -1. The two sides are level on points. Sociedad B average 0.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Granada average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Sociedad B), results & dominance (4.3 points toward Granada), attack (3.0 points toward Granada). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sociedad B
Goals in last 5 matches
Granada
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 51% and Over 2.5 at 49%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Sociedad B matches produced 3.0 goals on average over their last 5, Granada matches 3.8. Both teams to score comes in at 56%, no goal for at least one side at 44%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Granada attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 2.2 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sociedad B
Corners in last 5 matches
Granada
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.9 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 47%, which leaves 53% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sociedad B
Shots in last 5 matches
Granada
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.1 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Sociedad B wins by X goals. Negative = Granada wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Sociedad B vs Granada with expected spread of -0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Sociedad B vs Granada
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.3 goals in favour of Granada. The spread model gives 19% to a Sociedad B win by two goals or more and 49% to any Granada win. A Granada win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Sociedad B win (36%), Under 2.5 (51%), Goal (56%). Expected totals: 9.9 corners and 25.1 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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