Segunda División 2026-2027: Tenerife vs Cadiz Prediction - 26 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Tenerife

Home Team
59%
VS

Cadiz

Away Team
16%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 46%
No Goal: 54%
Expected Corners: 8.9
Expected Shots: 21.6
Expected Spread: +0.6

Why the Model Leans Tenerife

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Tenerife
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +7.1 Tenerife
Defense +5.4 Tenerife
Attack +2.4 Tenerife

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 78% for Tenerife. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Tenerife defense +4.6 Under
Cadiz defense +3.9 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Tenerife attack & chance creation +2.3 Under
Form & results +2.0 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 6 5 1 0 12 2 10 16
2 Eibar 6 5 0 1 12 4 8 15
3 Mallorca 6 4 1 1 8 2 6 13
4 Almeria 6 4 0 2 10 4 6 12
5 Burgos 6 3 2 1 10 7 3 11
6 Sabadell 6 3 2 1 7 5 2 11
7 Leganes 6 3 2 1 6 5 1 11
8 Girona 6 3 1 2 12 8 4 10
9 Sp Gijon 6 3 1 2 5 4 1 10
10 Las Palmas 6 3 1 2 8 8 0 10
11 Tenerife 6 3 1 2 7 8 -1 10
12 Sociedad B 6 2 2 2 8 7 1 8
13 Oviedo 6 2 2 2 5 4 1 8
14 Granada 6 2 2 2 8 8 0 8
15 Celta B 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
16 Cordoba 6 2 0 4 9 13 -4 6
17 Eldense 6 1 2 3 4 8 -4 5
18 Valladolid 6 1 2 3 3 8 -5 5
19 Cadiz 6 0 3 3 6 9 -3 3
20 Andorra 6 1 0 5 9 13 -4 3
21 Albacete 6 0 1 5 4 10 -6 1
22 Ceuta 6 0 1 5 3 16 -13 1
23 Celta 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24 Sociedad 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Recent Trends

Tenerife L W D L W

  • Last Match: L vs Castellon (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Leganes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sociedad B (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sp Gijon (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Almeria (Goals: 1 - 0)

Cadiz L L L D D

  • Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Las Palmas (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Almeria (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Valladolid (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Eldense (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Tenerife

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.33
Clean Sheets 2

Cadiz

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.50
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Tenerife a 59% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 24% and Cadiz at 16%. Tenerife are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 54% and sees both teams scoring in 46% of cases.

Match Analysis

Tenerife arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWDLW from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 7 with 2 clean sheets. Cadiz arrive with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLLDD from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 9 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Tenerife sit 11th with 10 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -1, while Cadiz are 19th with 3 points and a goal difference of -3. That puts Tenerife 7 points clear of their opponent. Tenerife average 1.0 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over their last five home games, while Cadiz average 2.0 scored and 2.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Tenerife), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (7.1 points toward Tenerife), defense (5.4 points toward Tenerife). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Tenerife
Goals in last 5 matches
Cadiz
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 54% and Over 2.5 at 46%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Tenerife matches produced 2.2 goals on average over their last 5, Cadiz matches 3.0. Both teams to score comes in at 46%, no goal for at least one side at 54%. In the model's own attribution, Tenerife defense pulls toward Under by 4.6 points and Cadiz defense pulls toward Over by 3.9 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Tenerife
Corners in last 5 matches
Cadiz
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 8.9 corners in total. The single most likely count is 8. The chance of 8 corners or fewer is 47%, which leaves 53% for 9 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Tenerife
Shots in last 5 matches
Cadiz
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 21.6 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 21. The chance of 21 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 22 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Tenerife wins by X goals. Negative = Cadiz wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Tenerife vs Cadiz with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Tenerife vs Cadiz
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.6 goals in favour of Tenerife. The spread model gives 30% to a Tenerife win by two goals or more and 34% to any Cadiz win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Tenerife win (59%), Under 2.5 (54%), No Goal (54%). Expected totals: 8.9 corners and 21.6 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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