Segunda División 2026-2027: Tenerife vs Girona Prediction - 12 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Tenerife

Home Team
33%
VS

Girona

Away Team
37%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 41%
Under 2.5: 59%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 8.6
Expected Shots: 23.5
Expected Spread: -0.2

Why the Model Leans Girona

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Tenerife
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.6 Girona
Results & dominance +5.6 Girona
Attack +3.4 Girona
Defense +2.4 Girona

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Girona. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Tenerife attack & chance creation +2.7 Under
Tenerife defense +2.7 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Girona defense +1.2 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.2 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Eibar 8 7 0 1 18 7 11 21
2 Castellon 8 6 2 0 15 3 12 20
3 Almeria 8 6 0 2 13 5 8 18
4 Girona 8 4 2 2 14 8 6 14
5 Mallorca 8 4 2 2 8 3 5 14
6 Burgos 8 4 2 2 12 9 3 14
7 Sabadell 8 3 4 1 8 6 2 13
8 Sp Gijon 8 4 1 3 8 8 0 13
9 Granada 8 3 2 3 13 13 0 11
10 Oviedo 8 3 2 3 8 8 0 11
11 Las Palmas 8 3 2 3 12 13 -1 11
12 Tenerife 8 3 2 3 10 12 -2 11
13 Leganes 8 3 2 3 6 11 -5 11
14 Valladolid 8 2 3 3 8 11 -3 9
15 Cordoba 8 3 0 5 13 18 -5 9
16 Sociedad B 8 2 2 4 11 13 -2 8
17 Eldense 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
18 Celta B 8 2 2 4 10 14 -4 8
19 Cadiz 8 1 4 3 11 10 1 7
20 Andorra 8 2 1 5 12 15 -3 7
21 Ceuta 8 1 2 5 7 18 -11 5
22 Albacete 8 0 1 7 5 15 -10 1

Recent Trends

Tenerife L D L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Cordoba (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Cadiz (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Castellon (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Leganes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sociedad B (Goals: 1 - 1)

Girona D W W L W

  • Last Match: D vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Albacete (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cadiz (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Castellon (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sp Gijon (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Tenerife

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.50
Clean Sheets 1

Girona

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.67
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.00
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Tenerife a 33% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Girona at 37%. This is a tight call, with Girona only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 59% and sees both teams scoring in 49% of cases.

Match Analysis

Tenerife arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDLWD from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 10 with 1 clean sheet. Girona arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DWWLW from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 3 with 3 clean sheets. In the table Tenerife sit 12th with 11 points from 8 games and a goal difference of -2, while Girona are 4th with 14 points and a goal difference of +6. That puts Girona 3 points clear of their opponent. Tenerife average 1.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Girona average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Tenerife), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (5.6 points toward Girona), results & dominance (5.6 points toward Girona). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Tenerife
Goals in last 5 matches
Girona
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 59% and Over 2.5 at 41%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Tenerife matches produced 3.2 goals on average over their last 5, Girona matches 2.0. Both teams to score comes in at 49%, no goal for at least one side at 51%. In the model's own attribution, Tenerife attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 2.7 points and Tenerife defense pulls toward Under by 2.7 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Tenerife
Corners in last 5 matches
Girona
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 8.6 corners in total. The single most likely count is 8. The chance of 8 corners or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 9 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Tenerife
Shots in last 5 matches
Girona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.5 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Tenerife wins by X goals. Negative = Girona wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Tenerife vs Girona with expected spread of -0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Tenerife vs Girona
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.2 goals in favour of Girona. The spread model gives 20% to a Tenerife win by two goals or more and 48% to any Girona win. A Girona win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Girona win (37%), Under 2.5 (59%), No Goal (51%). Expected totals: 8.6 corners and 23.5 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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