Segunda División 2026-2027: Valladolid vs Albacete Prediction - 12 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Valladolid

Home Team
53%
VS

Albacete

Away Team
20%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 48%
No Goal: 52%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 24.7
Expected Spread: +0.3

Why the Model Leans Valladolid

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Valladolid
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.6 Valladolid
Attack +3.2 Valladolid
Defense +1.8 Valladolid

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 72% for Valladolid. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Valladolid attack & chance creation +3.1 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Valladolid defense +1.6 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.3 Over
Form & results +0.5 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Eibar 8 7 0 1 18 7 11 21
2 Castellon 8 6 2 0 15 3 12 20
3 Almeria 8 6 0 2 13 5 8 18
4 Girona 8 4 2 2 14 8 6 14
5 Mallorca 8 4 2 2 8 3 5 14
6 Burgos 8 4 2 2 12 9 3 14
7 Sabadell 8 3 4 1 8 6 2 13
8 Sp Gijon 8 4 1 3 8 8 0 13
9 Granada 8 3 2 3 13 13 0 11
10 Oviedo 8 3 2 3 8 8 0 11
11 Las Palmas 8 3 2 3 12 13 -1 11
12 Tenerife 8 3 2 3 10 12 -2 11
13 Leganes 8 3 2 3 6 11 -5 11
14 Valladolid 8 2 3 3 8 11 -3 9
15 Cordoba 8 3 0 5 13 18 -5 9
16 Sociedad B 8 2 2 4 11 13 -2 8
17 Eldense 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
18 Celta B 8 2 2 4 10 14 -4 8
19 Cadiz 8 1 4 3 11 10 1 7
20 Andorra 8 2 1 5 12 15 -3 7
21 Ceuta 8 1 2 5 7 18 -11 5
22 Albacete 8 0 1 7 5 15 -10 1

Recent Trends

Valladolid D W D L W

  • Last Match: D vs Las Palmas (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cordoba (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Ceuta (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Andorra (Goals: 1 - 0)

Albacete L L L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Eibar (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Cordoba (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Granada (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Castellon (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Valladolid

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.33
Clean Sheets 1

Albacete

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.75
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Valladolid a 53% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 27% and Albacete at 20%. Valladolid are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 57% and sees both teams scoring in 48% of cases.

Match Analysis

Valladolid arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DWDLW from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. Albacete arrive with 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLLDL from most recent), scoring 3 and conceding 10 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Valladolid sit 14th with 9 points from 8 games and a goal difference of -3, while Albacete are 22nd with 1 point and a goal difference of -10. That puts Valladolid 8 points clear of their opponent. Valladolid average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five home games, while Albacete average 0.5 scored and 1.8 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Valladolid), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (5.6 points toward Valladolid), attack (3.2 points toward Valladolid). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Valladolid
Goals in last 5 matches
Albacete
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 57% and Over 2.5 at 43%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Valladolid matches produced 2.8 goals on average over their last 5, Albacete matches 2.6. Both teams to score comes in at 48%, no goal for at least one side at 52%. In the model's own attribution, Valladolid attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 3.1 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Valladolid
Corners in last 5 matches
Albacete
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.0 corners in total. The single most likely count is 8. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 59%, which leaves 41% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Valladolid
Shots in last 5 matches
Albacete
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.7 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Valladolid wins by X goals. Negative = Albacete wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Valladolid vs Albacete with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Valladolid vs Albacete
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.3 goals in favour of Valladolid. The spread model gives 27% to a Valladolid win by two goals or more and 38% to any Albacete win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Valladolid win (53%), Under 2.5 (57%), No Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.0 corners and 24.7 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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