Serie A 2025-2026: Bologna vs Parma Prediction - 8 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Bologna

Home Team
89%
VS

Parma

Away Team
5%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 23 18 1 4 52 19 33 55
2 Milan 23 14 8 1 38 17 21 50
3 Napoli 23 14 4 5 33 21 12 46
4 Juventus 23 13 6 4 39 18 21 45
5 Roma 23 14 1 8 27 14 13 43
6 Como 23 11 8 4 37 16 21 41
7 Atalanta 23 9 9 5 30 20 10 36
8 Lazio 23 8 8 7 24 21 3 32
9 Udinese 23 9 5 9 26 34 -8 32
10 Bologna 23 8 6 9 32 30 2 30
11 Sassuolo 23 8 5 10 27 29 -2 29
12 Cagliari 23 7 7 9 28 31 -3 28
13 Torino 23 7 5 11 22 40 -18 26
14 Genoa 23 5 8 10 27 34 -7 23
15 Cremonese 23 5 8 10 20 31 -11 23
16 Parma 23 5 8 10 15 30 -15 23
17 Lecce 23 4 6 13 13 30 -17 18
18 Fiorentina 23 3 8 12 25 36 -11 17
19 Pisa 23 1 11 11 19 40 -21 14
20 Verona 23 2 8 13 18 41 -23 14

Recent Trends

Bologna L L L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 1 - 1)

Parma L L D D W

  • Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bologna

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.96
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.99
# Clean Sheets: 0

Parma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.25
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.95
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Bologna are strong favourites at home with an 89.0% probability of victory against a Parma side given just a 5.0% chance, with the draw at 6.0%. The game is expected to be tight on the scoreboard, leaning slightly towards under 2.5 total goals (49.0% for over 2.5), but with a 52.0% chance that both teams find the net. In the table, Bologna sit 10th on 30 points, while Parma are down in 16th on 23 points and uncomfortably close to the relegation fight.

Match Analysis

Both teams come into this one in poor form. Bologna have lost three straight (0–3 vs Milan, 2–3 at Genoa, 1–2 vs Fiorentina), conceding eight goals and failing to keep a single clean sheet in that spell. Their recent averages underline the slump: just 0.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game over the last five, with expected goals also against them (0.962 xG for vs 1.986 xG against), suggesting they are second best at both ends. Parma’s run is only marginally better: a 1–4 home loss to Juventus, 0–4 away at Atalanta, followed by a goalless draw at home to Genoa. They average 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five matches, with 1.248 expected goals for and 1.948 against. Crucially, they’ve managed two clean sheets in that period, showing at least some defensive resilience that Bologna have been missing.

Final Prediction

Bologna’s higher league position, home advantage, and Parma’s low scoring record combine to justify Bologna as clear favourites despite their recent slide. The balance of numbers points to a low-scoring contest where a narrow home win is most likely. A key factor to watch will be whether Parma’s improving defensive discipline can frustrate Bologna long enough to turn this into a tense, cagey affair.

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