Bologna
Serie A · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #12 of 20 49.2 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #8 of 20 in Serie A 56 pts · 16W–8D–14L · GD +3
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Bologna?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Bologna's results were 14.1% harder to call than the Serie A average. How this is measured.
| Market | Bologna | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 56.2% | 52.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 51.9% |
| Both teams to score | 46.9% | 50.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie A | #10 | 1482 | 1614 | 1524 |
| 2024-25 | Serie A | #10 | 1498 | 1623 | 1523 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | #2 | 1467 | 1660 | 1618 |
| 2022-23 | Serie A | #7 | 1482 | 1574 | 1551 |
| 2021-22 | Serie A | #13 | 1518 | 1533 | 1452 |
| 2020-21 | Serie A | #15 | 1480 | 1500 | 1425 |
| 2019-20 | Serie A | #12 | 1502 | 1546 | 1470 |
| 2018-19 | Serie A | #8 | 1471 | 1534 | 1534 |
| 2017-18 | Serie A | #19 | 1525 | 1538 | 1348 |
| 2016-17 | Serie A | #15 | 1518 | 1518 | 1416 |
| 2015-16 | Serie A | #16 | 1482 | 1533 | 1424 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Atalanta | L Bologna 20.1% · draw 20.2% | W ✗ |
| May 11, 2026 | at Napoli | L Bologna 19.9% · draw 20.0% | W ✗ |
| May 03, 2026 | vs Cagliari | W Bologna 70.7% · draw 15.4% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Roma | L Bologna 34.7% · draw 24.1% | L ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | at Juventus | L Bologna 16.4% · draw 17.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Lecce | W Bologna 71.5% · draw 15.1% | W ✓ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Cremonese | W Bologna 55.0% · draw 21.2% | W ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Lazio | W Bologna 54.7% · draw 22.2% | L ✗ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | at Sassuolo | W Bologna 53.5% · draw 21.7% | W ✓ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | vs Verona | W Bologna 66.2% · draw 17.4% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/bologna">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/bologna">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>