Atalanta
Serie A · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #5 of 20 57.1 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #7 of 20 in Serie A 59 pts · 15W–14D–9L · GD +15
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Atalanta?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Atalanta's results were 13.5% harder to call than the Serie A average. How this is measured.
| Market | Atalanta | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 40.6% | 52.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 51.9% |
| Both teams to score | 43.8% | 50.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie A | #7 | 1498 | 1623 | 1541 |
| 2024-25 | Serie A | #4 | 1534 | 1677 | 1610 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | #3 | 1533 | 1651 | 1611 |
| 2022-23 | Serie A | #8 | 1533 | 1632 | 1544 |
| 2021-22 | Serie A | #12 | 1529 | 1673 | 1476 |
| 2020-21 | Serie A | #4 | 1531 | 1711 | 1670 |
| 2019-20 | Serie A | #3 | 1529 | 1713 | 1674 |
| 2018-19 | Serie A | #1 | 1523 | 1674 | 1674 |
| 2017-18 | Serie A | #7 | 1471 | 1599 | 1561 |
| 2016-17 | Serie A | #4 | 1471 | 1653 | 1645 |
| 2015-16 | Serie A | #10 | 1482 | 1548 | 1482 |
| 2014-15 | Serie A | #18 | 1498 | 1527 | 1413 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | vs Bologna | W Atalanta 59.7% · draw 20.2% | L ✗ |
| May 10, 2026 | at Milan | L Atalanta 37.0% · draw 24.1% | W ✗ |
| May 02, 2026 | vs Genoa | W Atalanta 60.7% · draw 19.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 27, 2026 | at Cagliari | W Atalanta 50.3% · draw 22.9% | L ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Roma | L Atalanta 37.1% · draw 25.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Juventus | W Atalanta 38.3% · draw 24.0% | L ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Lecce | W Atalanta 59.1% · draw 19.6% | W ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Verona | W Atalanta 73.1% · draw 14.3% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Inter | L Atalanta 29.6% · draw 20.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | vs Udinese | W Atalanta 77.1% · draw 12.4% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/atalanta">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/atalanta">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>