Milan
Serie A · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #9 of 20 53.5 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #5 of 20 in Serie A 70 pts · 20W–10D–8L · GD +18
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Milan?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Milan's results were 14.7% harder to call than the Serie A average. How this is measured.
| Market | Milan | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 46.9% | 52.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | 51.9% |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 50.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie A | #6 | 1471 | 1697 | 1559 |
| 2024-25 | Serie A | #6 | 1498 | 1598 | 1586 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | #4 | 1533 | 1669 | 1596 |
| 2022-23 | Serie A | #4 | 1520 | 1617 | 1598 |
| 2021-22 | Serie A | #1 | 1529 | 1731 | 1731 |
| 2020-21 | Serie A | #5 | 1520 | 1687 | 1666 |
| 2019-20 | Serie A | #2 | 1482 | 1693 | 1693 |
| 2018-19 | Serie A | #5 | 1484 | 1635 | 1610 |
| 2017-18 | Serie A | #4 | 1534 | 1632 | 1603 |
| 2016-17 | Serie A | #9 | 1518 | 1606 | 1510 |
| 2015-16 | Serie A | #8 | 1480 | 1609 | 1510 |
| 2014-15 | Serie A | #10 | 1520 | 1567 | 1513 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Genoa | W Milan 53.5% · draw 21.7% | W ✓ |
| May 10, 2026 | vs Atalanta | W Milan 38.9% · draw 24.1% | L ✗ |
| May 03, 2026 | at Sassuolo | W Milan 59.3% · draw 19.5% | L ✗ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs Juventus | L Milan 31.8% · draw 24.5% | D ✗ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | at Verona | W Milan 54.3% · draw 21.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Udinese | W Milan 73.4% · draw 14.2% | L ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Napoli | L Milan 26.3% · draw 23.3% | L ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Torino | W Milan 77.4% · draw 12.3% | W ✓ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | at Lazio | W Milan 46.6% · draw 24.2% | L ✗ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | vs Inter | L Milan 27.0% · draw 23.0% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/milan">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/milan">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>