Fiorentina

Serie A · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1533 · #9 Serie A Chaos club Updated May 17, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #11 of 20 49.4 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 0.8%
Champions League 9.6%
Europa League 8.8%
Relegation 14.9%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Fiorentina?

Chaos club 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Fiorentina's results were 12.9% harder to call than the Serie A average. How this is measured.

MarketFiorentinaLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 40.6% 52.5%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 43.8% 51.9%
Both teams to score 56.2% 50.3%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Serie A #9 1502 1533 1533
2024-25 Serie A #7 1502 1638 1570
2023-24 Serie A #7 1534 1601 1564
2022-23 Serie A #5 1518 1581 1581
2021-22 Serie A #7 1480 1597 1534
2020-21 Serie A #11 1518 1518 1473
2019-20 Serie A #8 1471 1530 1530
2018-19 Serie A #18 1520 1556 1370
2017-18 Serie A #9 1478 1599 1528
2016-17 Serie A #6 1482 1592 1528
2015-16 Serie A #5 1520 1627 1546
2014-15 Serie A #3 1480 1624 1582

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 at Juventus L Fiorentina 11.2% · draw 13.2% W ✗
May 10, 2026 vs Genoa W Fiorentina 50.1% · draw 23.9% D ✗
May 04, 2026 at Roma L Fiorentina 20.0% · draw 20.2% L ✓
Apr 26, 2026 vs Sassuolo W Fiorentina 54.0% · draw 22.5% D ✗
Apr 20, 2026 at Lecce W Fiorentina 45.7% · draw 24.5% D ✗
Apr 13, 2026 vs Lazio W Fiorentina 41.6% · draw 25.7% W ✓
Apr 04, 2026 at Verona W Fiorentina 43.3% · draw 25.3% W ✓
Mar 22, 2026 vs Inter L Fiorentina 22.1% · draw 20.1% D ✗
Mar 16, 2026 at Cremonese W Fiorentina 56.5% · draw 20.6% W ✓
Mar 08, 2026 vs Parma W Fiorentina 54.8% · draw 22.2% D ✗

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

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