Genoa
Serie A · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #14 of 20 48.4 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #16 of 20 in Serie A 41 pts · 10W–11D–17L · GD -10
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Genoa?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Genoa's results were 4.7% easier to call than the Serie A average. How this is measured.
| Market | Genoa | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 53.1% | 52.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 34.4% | 51.9% |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 50.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie A | #15 | 1498 | 1501 | 1451 |
| 2024-25 | Serie A | #11 | 1498 | 1527 | 1474 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | #10 | 1466 | 1529 | 1529 |
| 2022-23 | Serie B | #2 | 1533 | 1687 | 1684 |
| 2021-22 | Serie A | #19 | 1477 | 1483 | 1370 |
| 2020-21 | Serie A | #10 | 1522 | 1522 | 1502 |
| 2019-20 | Serie A | #14 | 1502 | 1518 | 1449 |
| 2018-19 | Serie A | #16 | 1520 | 1524 | 1417 |
| 2017-18 | Serie A | #16 | 1502 | 1532 | 1412 |
| 2016-17 | Serie A | #17 | 1520 | 1550 | 1373 |
| 2015-16 | Serie A | #12 | 1482 | 1519 | 1467 |
| 2014-15 | Serie A | #6 | 1471 | 1604 | 1560 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | vs Milan | L Genoa 24.8% · draw 21.7% | L ✓ |
| May 10, 2026 | at Fiorentina | L Genoa 26.0% · draw 23.9% | D ✗ |
| May 02, 2026 | at Atalanta | L Genoa 19.5% · draw 19.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs Como | L Genoa 24.2% · draw 21.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | at Pisa | W Genoa 37.0% · draw 26.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Sassuolo | W Genoa 46.0% · draw 25.5% | W ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Juventus | L Genoa 10.3% · draw 12.3% | L ✓ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Udinese | W Genoa 55.9% · draw 21.8% | L ✗ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | at Verona | L Genoa 30.0% · draw 26.3% | W ✗ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | vs Roma | L Genoa 23.5% · draw 21.0% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/genoa">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/genoa">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>