Parma
Serie A · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #15 of 20 47.6 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #12 of 20 in Serie A 45 pts · 11W–12D–15L · GD -18
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Parma?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Parma's results were 12.4% harder to call than the Serie A average. How this is measured.
| Market | Parma | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 37.5% | 52.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 65.6% | 51.9% |
| Both teams to score | 46.9% | 50.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie A | #13 | 1480 | 1518 | 1457 |
| 2024-25 | Serie A | #12 | 1498 | 1516 | 1451 |
| 2023-24 | Serie B | #2 | 1614 | 1706 | 1649 |
| 2022-23 | Serie B | #5 | 1524 | 1627 | 1627 |
| 2021-22 | Serie B | #10 | 1587 | 1626 | 1531 |
| 2020-21 | Serie A | #20 | 1467 | 1473 | 1254 |
| 2019-20 | Serie A | #11 | 1471 | 1536 | 1473 |
| 2018-19 | Serie A | #17 | 1498 | 1546 | 1398 |
| 2017-18 | Serie B | #2 | 1518 | 1624 | 1609 |
| 2014-15 | Serie A | #20 | 1482 | 1490 | 1371 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Como | L Parma 9.0% · draw 11.1% | L ✓ |
| May 10, 2026 | vs Roma | L Parma 27.5% · draw 23.3% | L ✓ |
| May 03, 2026 | at Inter | L Parma 7.4% · draw 9.5% | L ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Pisa | W Parma 64.4% · draw 18.2% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Udinese | L Parma 23.3% · draw 22.4% | W ✗ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Napoli | L Parma 23.3% · draw 20.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | at Lazio | L Parma 19.6% · draw 19.9% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Cremonese | W Parma 53.5% · draw 22.7% | L ✗ |
| Mar 13, 2026 | at Torino | L Parma 25.5% · draw 23.8% | L ✓ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | at Fiorentina | L Parma 23.0% · draw 22.2% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/parma">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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