Serie A 2025-2026: Fiorentina vs Atalanta Prediction - 22 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Fiorentina

Home Team
31%
VS

Atalanta

Away Team
45%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 25.4
Expected Spread: -0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 37 27 5 5 86 32 54 86
2 Napoli 37 22 7 8 57 36 21 73
3 Milan 37 20 10 7 52 33 19 70
4 Roma 37 22 4 11 57 31 26 70
5 Como 37 19 11 7 61 28 33 68
6 Juventus 37 19 11 7 59 32 27 68
7 Atalanta 37 15 13 9 50 35 15 58
8 Bologna 37 16 7 14 46 43 3 55
9 Lazio 37 13 12 12 39 39 0 51
10 Udinese 37 14 8 15 45 47 -2 50
11 Sassuolo 37 14 7 16 46 49 -3 49
12 Torino 37 12 8 17 42 61 -19 44
13 Parma 37 10 12 15 27 46 -19 42
14 Genoa 37 10 11 16 41 50 -9 41
15 Fiorentina 37 9 14 14 40 49 -9 41
16 Cagliari 37 10 10 17 38 52 -14 40
17 Lecce 37 9 8 20 27 50 -23 35
18 Cremonese 37 8 10 19 31 53 -22 34
19 Verona 37 3 12 22 25 59 -34 21
20 Pisa 37 2 12 23 25 69 -44 18

Recent Trends

Fiorentina W D L D D

  • Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sassuolo (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 1)

Atalanta L W D L D

  • Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fiorentina

xG (avg) 1.17
xGA (avg) 0.81
Clean Sheets 3

Atalanta

xG (avg) 1.54
xGA (avg) 1.68
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Atalanta are slight favourites here, with a 45.0% chance of taking all three points away to a Fiorentina side given a 31.0% probability of victory, while the draw sits at 25.0%. The model leans towards an away win and expects goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 52.0%. In the table, Atalanta are firmly in the European mix in 7th on 58 points, while Fiorentina sit 15th on 41 points, still looking over their shoulder at the relegation fight.

Match Analysis

Fiorentina come into this one with mixed signals. The 2-0 win at Juventus was a statement result, built on defensive resilience despite conceding 26 shots and six corners. That was followed by a tight 0-0 at home to Genoa where they controlled territory but couldn’t convert, and then a heavy 4-0 defeat away to Roma which underlined their vulnerability when the back line is stretched. Over their last five games they’ve averaged just 0.4 goals scored but only 0.2 conceded, and their xG numbers (1.172 for, 0.814 against) plus three clean sheets suggest a team defending better than the league position but still lacking a cutting edge. Atalanta’s recent form is more open and high-event. A 3-2 away win at Milan showed their attacking punch even when outshot 20-9, but a 0-1 home loss to Bologna and a 0-0 with Genoa highlighted their inconsistency in front of goal. Across the last five matches they’ve averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with xG at 1.544 for and 1.678 against, underlining a side that creates and allows chances in almost equal measure. That balance, combined with their higher league standing, explains why the away side is marginally favoured despite playing in Florence.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Fiorentina
Goals in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction edges it at 52.0%, even if recent scores are mixed. Fiorentina’s last three have produced totals of 2, 0 and 4 goals – only one of those three went over 2.5. Atalanta’s last three saw totals of 1, 5 and 0 goals, again just one over 2.5. However, Atalanta’s 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average, coupled with both teams’ positive xG figures, point towards enough chances for the game to tilt away from an under 2.5 cagey affair.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Fiorentina
Corners in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.58, pointing towards a game with a healthy but not extreme number of set-piece situations. Fiorentina’s last three have seen corner counts of 2-6, 4-3 and 5-4, while Atalanta’s read 2-5, 2-2 and 6-2, all hovering around that 8–10 range. With both sides willing to push forward – Atalanta in particular – this corners prediction fits their styles: Fiorentina probing but measured, Atalanta more aggressive and likely to force the issue out wide.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Fiorentina
Shots in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 25.37 total attempts, in line with what both teams have shown recently. Fiorentina’s last three have produced combined shot totals of 36, 22 and 18, while Atalanta’s were 20, 29 and 28, with the Bergamo side twice racking up more than 20 efforts alone. Given Atalanta’s xG of 1.544 and Fiorentina’s 1.172 per match over five games, a mid‑20s figure for expected shots feels consistent with two attack-minded sides who are not shy about shooting from decent positions.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Fiorentina wins by X goals. Negative = Atalanta wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Fiorentina vs Atalanta with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Fiorentina vs Atalanta
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.09 (home minus away), a marginal edge in favour of Atalanta that mirrors the win probabilities rather than forecasting a clear margin. Fiorentina’s recent goal differences (+2, 0, -4) show a boom-or-bust pattern, while Atalanta’s (+0, +1, -1 over the last three) have generally been tight contests. That expected spread suggests a one-goal game either way, with Atalanta’s stronger attack giving them a fractional advantage despite Fiorentina’s recent run of clean sheets.

Final Prediction

Atalanta’s superior league position, greater scoring power and more expansive attacking numbers give them a slight edge away from home, even against a Fiorentina side that has quietly tightened up defensively. The key factor to watch will be whether Fiorentina’s low scoring trend continues; if Atalanta find an early goal, the match is likely to open up and play into the visitors’ hands.

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