Roma
Serie A · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Champions League 2026-27
#13 in the title oddsTop 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.
10,000 simulated seasons · updated Sep 04, 2026.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #2 of 20 71.5 expected pts · currently 6 pts after 2 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #3 of 20 in Serie A 73 pts · 23W-4D-11L · GD +28
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Roma?
On script 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Roma's results were 35.1% easier to call than the Serie A average. How this is measured.
| Market | Roma | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 75.0% | 52.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | 51.9% |
| Both teams to score | 46.9% | 50.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Serie A | #1 | 1523 | 1558 | 1558 |
| 2025-26 | Serie A | #2 | 1518 | 1627 | 1627 |
| 2024-25 | Serie A | #2 | 1502 | 1678 | 1678 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | #8 | 1498 | 1623 | 1562 |
| 2022-23 | Serie A | #11 | 1529 | 1608 | 1519 |
| 2021-22 | Serie A | #5 | 1520 | 1622 | 1590 |
| 2020-21 | Serie A | #9 | 1502 | 1608 | 1504 |
| 2019-20 | Serie A | #4 | 1498 | 1626 | 1609 |
| 2018-19 | Serie A | #4 | 1529 | 1616 | 1616 |
| 2017-18 | Serie A | #3 | 1529 | 1659 | 1659 |
| 2016-17 | Serie A | #3 | 1523 | 1716 | 1716 |
| 2015-16 | Serie A | #2 | 1502 | 1722 | 1722 |
| 2014-15 | Serie A | #4 | 1520 | 1651 | 1576 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | vs Lazio | W Roma 65.5% · draw 17.7% | W ✓ |
| May 10, 2026 | at Parma | W Roma 49.2% · draw 23.3% | W ✓ |
| May 04, 2026 | vs Fiorentina | W Roma 59.8% · draw 20.2% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Bologna | W Roma 41.2% · draw 24.1% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Atalanta | W Roma 37.7% · draw 25.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vs Pisa | W Roma 77.6% · draw 12.2% | W ✓ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Inter | L Roma 14.7% · draw 15.0% | L ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Lecce | W Roma 74.9% · draw 13.5% | W ✓ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | at Como | L Roma 28.9% · draw 21.2% | L ✓ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | at Genoa | W Roma 55.5% · draw 21.0% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/roma">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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