Serie A 2025-2026: Genoa vs Milan Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Genoa

Home Team
25%
VS

Milan

Away Team
54%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 46%
No Goal: 54%
Expected Corners: 8.9
Expected Shots: 23.8
Expected Spread: -0.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 36 27 4 5 85 31 54 85
2 Napoli 36 21 7 8 54 36 18 70
3 Juventus 36 19 11 6 59 30 29 68
4 Milan 36 19 10 7 50 32 18 67
5 Roma 36 21 4 11 55 31 24 67
6 Como 36 18 11 7 60 28 32 65
7 Atalanta 36 15 13 8 50 34 16 58
8 Bologna 36 15 7 14 45 43 2 52
9 Lazio 36 13 12 11 39 37 2 51
10 Udinese 36 14 8 14 45 46 -1 50
11 Sassuolo 36 14 7 15 44 46 -2 49
12 Torino 36 12 8 16 41 59 -18 44
13 Parma 36 10 12 14 27 45 -18 42
14 Genoa 36 10 11 15 40 48 -8 41
15 Fiorentina 36 8 14 14 38 49 -11 38
16 Cagliari 36 9 10 17 36 51 -15 37
17 Lecce 36 8 8 20 24 48 -24 32
18 Cremonese 36 7 10 19 30 53 -23 31
19 Verona 36 3 11 22 24 58 -34 20
20 Pisa 36 2 12 22 25 66 -41 18

Recent Trends

Genoa D D L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 1)

Milan L L D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Genoa

xG (avg) 1.60
xGA (avg) 0.85
Clean Sheets 2

Milan

xG (avg) 1.39
xGA (avg) 1.09
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Milan are favoured to take all three points in Genoa, with a 54.0% chance of an away win against just 25.0% for the hosts and 22.0% for the draw. Sitting 4th on 67 points and locked in a Champions League race, Milan are expected to edge a Genoa side in 14th on 41 points. The model leans towards a tight affair: an under 2.5 goals prediction with a 45.0% probability of over 2.5, and only a 46.0% chance that both teams score, pointing to a low-scoring contest.

Match Analysis

Genoa come into this with their attacking edge blunted: no goals in their last three games and just one point collected at home to Como (0-2), and away at Atalanta (0-0) and Fiorentina (0-0). The curious part is that the underlying numbers are kinder – over the last five, they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with an xG of 1.596 for and only 0.854 against, plus two clean sheets. That profile suggests a team more solid and creative than the recent scorelines show, but currently lacking the finishing touch. Milan’s recent run is also underwhelming in terms of results and output. They’ve taken just one point from their last three – a 0-0 at home to Juventus between defeats to Atalanta (2-3) and Sassuolo (0-2). Across the last five games they average only 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, yet their xG sits higher at 1.394 for and 1.088 against, again hinting at wasted chances rather than a complete attacking collapse. With the Rossoneri tighter at the back than their last two scorelines might suggest and Genoa struggling in front of goal, this sets up as a cagey match rather than an end‑to‑end spectacle.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Genoa
Goals in last 5 matches
Milan
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5, with the over 2.5 prediction only at 45.0%, which fits what we’ve seen lately. All three of Genoa’s most recent matches finished under 2.5 goals (0-0, 0-0, 0-2), and two of Milan’s last three also went under (0-0 vs Juventus, 0-2 at Sassuolo), with only the 2-3 loss to Atalanta clearing the line. Given Genoa’s average of 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded, and Milan’s 0.6 scored and 0.8 conceded in their last five, plus both sides’ xG figures hovering around 1–1.5 per game, a tight, low-scoring encounter looks more likely than a shoot-out.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Genoa
Corners in last 5 matches
Milan
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is modest at 8.88, suggesting this corners prediction sits around the average mark rather than a high-volume, endline-to-endline game. Genoa’s last three produced corner counts of 3-4, 2-6 and 2-3 – generally low numbers that reflect a measured, compact approach rather than waves of wide attacks. Milan’s recent matches were similarly restrained on corners (2-2 vs Atalanta, 3-2 at Sassuolo, 1-3 vs Juventus), underlining that neither side is consistently racking up set pieces through aggressive wing play.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Genoa
Shots in last 5 matches
Milan
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.8, a shots prediction that points to a game with chances but not relentless pressure. Genoa’s last three outings saw them take 9, 7 and 9 shots while allowing 13, 21 and 8 – often under pressure but still capable of testing the opposition keeper. Milan, meanwhile, fired 20 shots against Atalanta but only 7 at Sassuolo and 8 versus Juventus; combined with xG figures of 1.596 for Genoa and 1.394 for Milan over their last five, we can expect a reasonable number of attempts without it turning into a barrage.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Genoa wins by X goals. Negative = Milan wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Genoa vs Milan with expected spread of -0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Genoa vs Milan
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.53 in favour of Milan, meaning the expected spread has the away side winning by about half a goal on average. Over the last three matches, Genoa are -2 on goal difference (0-2, 0-0, 0-0), while Milan sit at -3 (2-3, 0-2, 0-0), but Milan’s higher win probability (54.0%) and superior league position suggest greater overall quality. With both teams’ defences generally limiting goals (Genoa conceding 1.2 per game recently, Milan 0.8), Milan’s extra edge in xG and squad strength tilts the balance slightly their way.

Final Prediction

Milan’s push for a top‑four finish, stronger underlying attacking numbers and overall squad quality give them the edge over a Genoa side that has gone three games without scoring. The key factor to watch will be which attack finally converts its xG into goals first in what projects to be a controlled, low‑margin battle.

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