Serie A 2025-2026: Lecce vs Juventus Prediction - 9 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lecce

Home Team
18%
VS

Juventus

Away Team
65%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 23.8
Expected Spread: -1.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 35 26 4 5 82 31 51 82
2 Napoli 35 21 7 7 52 33 19 70
3 Milan 35 19 10 6 48 29 19 67
4 Juventus 35 18 11 6 58 30 28 65
5 Roma 35 20 4 11 52 29 23 64
6 Como 35 17 11 7 59 28 31 62
7 Atalanta 35 14 13 8 47 32 15 55
8 Lazio 35 13 12 10 39 34 5 51
9 Bologna 35 14 7 14 42 41 1 49
10 Sassuolo 35 14 7 14 43 44 -1 49
11 Udinese 35 13 8 14 43 46 -3 47
12 Parma 35 10 12 13 25 42 -17 42
13 Torino 35 11 8 16 39 58 -19 41
14 Genoa 35 10 10 15 40 48 -8 40
15 Cagliari 35 9 10 16 36 49 -13 37
16 Fiorentina 35 8 13 14 38 49 -11 37
17 Lecce 35 8 8 19 24 47 -23 32
18 Cremonese 35 6 10 19 27 53 -26 28
19 Verona 35 3 11 21 24 57 -33 20
20 Pisa 35 2 12 21 25 63 -38 18

Recent Trends

Lecce W D D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Verona (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 3)

Juventus D D W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lecce

xG (avg) 1.25
xGA (avg) 1.68
Clean Sheets 1

Juventus

xG (avg) 1.60
xGA (avg) 1.61
Clean Sheets 4

Key Prediction Insights

Juventus are clear favourites away to Lecce, with a 65.0% chance of taking all three points against just 18.0% for the hosts and 17.0% for the draw. The expected goal spread sits at -1.07 in favour of the fourth‑placed Bianconeri, who are chasing Champions League security, while 17th‑placed Lecce are still glancing nervously over their shoulders at the drop. The model leans towards a tight contest on the scoresheet, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite Juve’s superior quality.

Match Analysis

Lecce come into this one unbeaten in three, but the margins have been fine. A 2-1 win at rock-bottom Pisa was followed by gritty away and home draws against Verona (0-0) and Fiorentina (1-1). Across those games they’ve tightened up slightly, conceding just twice, but they still struggle for firepower: only three goals scored in that stretch, consistent with their season tally of 24 goals in 35 matches and a goal difference of -23. Juventus, meanwhile, are grinding rather than sparkling. They’re also unbeaten in their last three – a 2-0 home win over Bologna sandwiched between a 0-0 at Milan and a frustrating 1-1 draw with Verona despite overwhelming shot and corner dominance in both home games. Their recent advanced numbers tell a similar story: 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on average over the last five, with xG for at 1.596 and xG against at 1.612, but an impressive four clean sheets in that span underline their defensive reliability. Lecce’s advanced metrics highlight why they are underdogs: 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average in the last five, with xG for at 1.252 and xG against at 1.682, plus just one clean sheet. Over 90 minutes against a top-four side, that imbalance usually shows. Juventus may not be ruthless, but their structure and solidity give them a clear edge.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lecce
Goals in last 5 matches
Juventus
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for under 2.5 with a 53.0% implied likelihood (given 47.0% for over), which fits the recent pattern for both sides. Two of Lecce’s last three matches stayed under (0-0 v Verona, 1-1 v Fiorentina), with only the 2-1 at Pisa going over 2.5. Juventus are even more low‑scoring: all of their last three – 2-0 v Bologna, 0-0 v Milan, 1-1 v Verona – finished under the line, reinforcing the under 2.5 prediction. Lecce’s average of 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded, alongside xG of 1.252 for and 1.682 against, suggest they don’t often get involved in big shoot‑outs. Juve’s figures (1.4 scored, 1.2 conceded, xG for 1.596 and against 1.612) are similarly modest, and when paired with their run of four clean sheets in five, it tilts this over 2.5 prediction firmly towards another cagey, low-scoring contest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lecce
Corners in last 5 matches
Juventus
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.49, pointing to a moderately busy game from set pieces. Lecce’s last three have produced fluctuating numbers: they were outgunned 6-1 on corners at Pisa, then edged Verona 4-2 and Fiorentina 5-2, suggesting a side that can grow into games at home but doesn’t constantly pile up pressure. Juventus, by contrast, have been relentless in wide areas: 14-1 corners against Verona, 3-1 at Milan and 6-1 versus Bologna underline a team that wins territory and forces blocks and clearances. That pattern supports a corners prediction close to double figures, with Juve likely responsible for the bulk, in line with their controlled, front‑foot approach even in tight scorelines.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lecce
Shots in last 5 matches
Juventus
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game sit at 23.75 in total, which matches how both sides have been playing. Lecce’s last three saw them take 7 shots at Pisa, then 12 at Verona and 14 at home to Fiorentina, while conceding 17, 6 and 5 respectively – a gradual improvement in their own chance creation, especially at home. Juventus have been shot-happy recently: 29 attempts against Verona, 10 away to Milan and 14 versus Bologna, while consistently limiting opponents (7, 8 and 7 allowed). That volume marries well with their xG of 1.596 per game, so the shots prediction of around 24 total attempts feels realistic, with Juve likely to outshoot Lecce by a clear margin as they probe for the breakthrough.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lecce wins by X goals. Negative = Juventus wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lecce vs Juventus with expected spread of -1.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lecce vs Juventus
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction of -1.07 reflects a game where Juventus are expected to win by around a goal, maybe slightly more, reinforcing their 65.0% win probability. Recent goal differences support that view: Lecce are +1 over their last three (3 scored, 2 conceded), but that includes softer opposition, whereas Juve are +2 (3 scored, 1 conceded) against stronger sides and with three solid displays. Given Lecce’s season‑long goal difference of -23 and Juve’s +28, the expected spread leans heavily towards the visitors. Their tighter defence, four clean sheets in the last five and more reliable attack make a narrow but controlled away win the most plausible outcome.

Final Prediction

Juventus have the edge through defensive organisation, higher-quality chance creation and a proven ability to manage tight, low-scoring matches – all of which align with the model’s away win and under 2.5 goals call. Lecce’s recent resilience at least hints they can make Juve work for it, especially at home. The key factor to watch will be whether Lecce can withstand Juve’s steady stream of territory and shots without conceding early; if they crack, the visitors’ control should do the rest.

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