Lecce
Serie A · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #20 of 20 41.9 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #17 of 20 in Serie A 38 pts · 10W–8D–20L · GD -22
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Lecce?
On script 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Lecce's results were 17.6% easier to call than the Serie A average. How this is measured.
| Market | Lecce | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 56.2% | 52.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 51.9% |
| Both teams to score | 40.6% | 50.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie A | #16 | 1502 | 1502 | 1434 |
| 2024-25 | Serie A | #15 | 1466 | 1476 | 1419 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | #17 | 1518 | 1553 | 1406 |
| 2022-23 | Serie A | #16 | 1471 | 1506 | 1406 |
| 2021-22 | Serie B | #1 | 1534 | 1687 | 1633 |
| 2020-21 | Serie B | #5 | 1578 | 1686 | 1576 |
| 2019-20 | Serie A | #18 | 1477 | 1490 | 1380 |
| 2018-19 | Serie B | #2 | 1502 | 1629 | 1603 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Sassuolo | L Lecce 22.6% · draw 21.9% | W ✗ |
| May 09, 2026 | vs Juventus | L Lecce 17.7% · draw 17.1% | L ✓ |
| May 01, 2026 | at Pisa | L Lecce 29.3% · draw 25.7% | W ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Verona | L Lecce 24.2% · draw 23.0% | D ✗ |
| Apr 20, 2026 | vs Fiorentina | L Lecce 29.8% · draw 24.5% | D ✗ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Bologna | L Lecce 13.4% · draw 15.1% | L ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Atalanta | L Lecce 21.4% · draw 19.6% | L ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | at Roma | L Lecce 11.6% · draw 13.5% | L ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Napoli | L Lecce 9.9% · draw 12.0% | L ✓ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | vs Cremonese | W Lecce 55.9% · draw 21.8% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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