Lecce
Serie A · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #19 of 20 37.2 expected pts · currently 6 pts after 6 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #17 of 20 in Serie A 38 pts · 10W-8D-20L · GD -22
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Lecce?
On script 2025-26 · 30 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Lecce's results were 16.3% easier to call than the Serie A average. How this is measured.
| Market | Lecce | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 56.7% | 52.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | 52.3% |
| Both teams to score | 33.3% | 48.0% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Serie A | #16 | 1533 | 1533 | 1446 |
| 2025-26 | Serie A | #16 | 1502 | 1502 | 1434 |
| 2024-25 | Serie A | #15 | 1466 | 1476 | 1419 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | #17 | 1518 | 1553 | 1406 |
| 2022-23 | Serie A | #16 | 1471 | 1506 | 1406 |
| 2021-22 | Serie B | #1 | 1534 | 1687 | 1633 |
| 2020-21 | Serie B | #5 | 1578 | 1686 | 1576 |
| 2019-20 | Serie A | #18 | 1477 | 1490 | 1380 |
| 2018-19 | Serie B | #2 | 1502 | 1629 | 1603 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/lecce">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/serie_a"
width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings · Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/lecce">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>