Serie A 2025-2026: Milan vs Roma Prediction
Milan
Home Team
44%
VS
Roma
Away Team
31%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5:
46%
Under 2.5:
54%
Goal:
51%
No Goal:
49%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napoli | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | Roma | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Inter | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Milan | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 18 |
| 5 | Como | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 16 |
| 6 | Bologna | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Juventus | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cremonese | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Atalanta | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 10 | Udinese | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Torino | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Lazio | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| 13 | Sassuolo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 | Cagliari | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Parma | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Lecce | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Verona | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 5 |
| 18 | Pisa | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Genoa | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 3 |
Recent Trends
Milan
- Last Match: vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Pisa (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 1)
Roma
- Last Match: vs Parma (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Milan
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.64
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.00
# Clean Sheets:
1
Roma
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.42
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.85
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Milan and Roma is expected to be a tightly contested affair, with Milan having a 44% probability of securing a victory at home. Despite Roma's strong season, the draw stands at a 25% chance, while an away win for Roma is predicted at 31%. Positioned 4th in the Serie A standings, Milan will host 2nd-placed Roma, with expectations of a low-scoring encounter, as the probability of under 2.5 goals is 54%.
Match Analysis
In their recent outings, Milan has shown a mixed bag of results with one win and two draws. Their defense has been relatively sturdy, conceding only four goals over these matches. Meanwhile, Milan has managed to score consistently, with an average of 1.6 goals per game in their last five matches. Advanced metrics highlight their potential in attack, with a slightly higher expected goals average of 1.636. However, defensive solidity remains a concern with an average of 1.2 goals conceded per game.
On the other hand, Roma enters this match having won two of their last three games. Their defensive resilience has been a standout feature, conceding just one goal across these fixtures. Roma's attacking unit, led by efficient goal-scoring, boasts an average of 1.25 goals per game in their last five outings. With two clean sheets in these games, Roma's defense could prove pivotal, creating a stern test for Milan's forwards.
Final Prediction
Milan’s home advantage and slight edge in attacking metrics give them a potential upper hand in this encounter. Nonetheless, the key to their success will likely hinge on breaching Roma's formidable defense. Football fans should keep an eye on how Milan’s attackers navigate Roma's compact defense, as this could determine the outcome of the match.