Serie A 2025-2026: Pisa vs Napoli Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Pisa

Home Team
18%
VS

Napoli

Away Team
64%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 44%
No Goal: 56%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 22.7
Expected Spread: -1.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 36 27 4 5 85 31 54 85
2 Napoli 36 21 7 8 54 36 18 70
3 Juventus 36 19 11 6 59 30 29 68
4 Milan 36 19 10 7 50 32 18 67
5 Roma 36 21 4 11 55 31 24 67
6 Como 36 18 11 7 60 28 32 65
7 Atalanta 36 15 13 8 50 34 16 58
8 Bologna 36 15 7 14 45 43 2 52
9 Lazio 36 13 12 11 39 37 2 51
10 Udinese 36 14 8 14 45 46 -1 50
11 Sassuolo 36 14 7 15 44 46 -2 49
12 Torino 36 12 8 16 41 59 -18 44
13 Parma 36 10 12 14 27 45 -18 42
14 Genoa 36 10 11 15 40 48 -8 41
15 Fiorentina 36 8 14 14 38 49 -11 38
16 Cagliari 36 9 10 17 36 51 -15 37
17 Lecce 36 8 8 20 24 48 -24 32
18 Cremonese 36 7 10 19 30 53 -23 31
19 Verona 36 3 11 22 24 58 -34 20
20 Pisa 36 2 12 22 25 66 -41 18

Recent Trends

Pisa L L L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 3)

Napoli L D W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Pisa

xG (avg) 1.41
xGA (avg) 1.53
Clean Sheets 0

Napoli

xG (avg) 1.34
xGA (avg) 0.69
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli are clear favourites here, with a 64.0% chance of victory compared to Pisa’s 18.0%, and the visitors expected to justify their status as Serie A runners-up (2nd place, 70 points) against the bottom club (20th, 18 points). The model points towards a tight, low-scoring contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 47.0% and no both-teams-to-score expected. With Napoli chasing Champions League security and Pisa already rooted to the foot of the table, the gap in quality is stark.

Match Analysis

Pisa come into this under heavy pressure and on a three-game losing streak: 0-3 at Cremonese, 1-2 at home to Lecce, and 0-1 away at Parma. The pattern is worrying: just one goal scored and six conceded across those matches, plus a lack of cutting edge despite some volume (17 shots vs Lecce, 12 at Parma). Their last five games back that up: 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average, with no clean sheets and xG figures (1.414 for, 1.534 against) suggesting they concede slightly more chances than they create. Napoli, by contrast, have been steadier even if not spectacular. A 4-0 demolition of Cremonese was followed by a cagey 0-0 at Como and a 2-3 home defeat to Bologna in a more open encounter. Over the last five matches they average 1.0 goal scored and only 0.8 conceded, supported by strong underlying numbers: 1.34 xG for and just 0.686 xG against per game, plus two clean sheets. That balance of a controlled defence with a consistently dangerous attack underpins why the visitors are strongly fancied here.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Pisa
Goals in last 5 matches
Napoli
Goals in last 5 matches
The under 2.5 prediction is favoured, with a 47.0% probability that this stays relatively low scoring. Pisa’s last three matches have seen totals of 3, 3 and 1 goals – two out of three over 2.5 – but their own scoring return is minimal. Napoli’s recent run has produced 5, 0 and 4 total goals, two over and one under 2.5, yet their five-game averages (1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded) and modest xG figures for both sides point more towards a controlled Napoli win than a shootout.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Pisa
Corners in last 5 matches
Napoli
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners stands at 9.0, a mid-range corners prediction that fits the recent data. Pisa’s last three games produced corner counts of 1-7, 6-1 and 4-7, showing they can be forced deep and also rack up corners when chasing. Napoli’s 7-1, 2-3 and 7-5 corner numbers underline a team that generally dictates territory; their front-foot style should ensure the majority of the predicted corners belong to the away side.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Pisa
Shots in last 5 matches
Napoli
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match are 22.69 in total, which suits the pattern of both teams’ recent outings. Pisa have registered 0, 17 and 12 shots in their last three, while allowing 10, 7 and 15 attempts, reflecting a team often on the back foot. Napoli’s 14, 8 and 25 shots across their last three, combined with their 1.34 xG per game, support a shots prediction where the visitors are responsible for the bulk of the attacking threat.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Pisa wins by X goals. Negative = Napoli wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Pisa vs Napoli with expected spread of -1.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Pisa vs Napoli
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at -1.02 (home minus away), meaning the expected spread clearly favours Napoli by about a goal. Recent scorelines back this up: Pisa’s last three matches show a combined goal difference of -5, while Napoli’s is +1 over the same sample. With Napoli given a 64.0% win probability and boasting the stronger defensive and attacking numbers, a one-goal (or slightly more) margin in their favour is in line with both form and statistics.

Final Prediction

Napoli’s edge lies in their defensive solidity and superior xG profile, coupled with Pisa’s struggles in both boxes and their position at the bottom of Serie A. If Napoli control territory as expected and limit Pisa’s chances, the visitors should have enough to take three points. The key factor to watch will be how early Napoli can impose their tempo; an early goal for the away side could turn this into a routine, professional away win.

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