Napoli
Serie A · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Champions League 2026-27
#19 in the title oddsTop 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.
10,000 simulated seasons · updated Oct 20, 2026.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #7 of 20 60.8 expected pts · currently 10 pts after 6 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #2 of 20 in Serie A 76 pts · 23W-7D-8L · GD +22
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Napoli?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 30 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Napoli's results were 9.4% easier to call than the Serie A average. How this is measured.
| Market | Napoli | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 56.7% | 52.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | 52.3% |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 48.0% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Serie A | #8 | 1533 | 1533 | 1529 |
| 2025-26 | Serie A | #5 | 1533 | 1657 | 1580 |
| 2024-25 | Serie A | #3 | 1478 | 1710 | 1674 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | #11 | 1533 | 1571 | 1492 |
| 2022-23 | Serie A | #1 | 1534 | 1764 | 1681 |
| 2021-22 | Serie A | #3 | 1520 | 1673 | 1645 |
| 2020-21 | Serie A | #2 | 1533 | 1696 | 1683 |
| 2019-20 | Serie A | #6 | 1529 | 1592 | 1589 |
| 2018-19 | Serie A | #3 | 1529 | 1677 | 1630 |
| 2017-18 | Serie A | #2 | 1533 | 1743 | 1704 |
| 2016-17 | Serie A | #1 | 1502 | 1768 | 1768 |
| 2015-16 | Serie A | #3 | 1482 | 1714 | 1656 |
| 2014-15 | Serie A | #7 | 1529 | 1622 | 1531 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/napoli">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/napoli">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>