Napoli
Serie A · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #6 of 20 56.4 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #2 of 20 in Serie A 76 pts · 23W–7D–8L · GD +22
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Napoli?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Napoli's results were 6.4% easier to call than the Serie A average. How this is measured.
| Market | Napoli | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 56.2% | 52.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 51.9% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 50.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie A | #5 | 1533 | 1657 | 1580 |
| 2024-25 | Serie A | #3 | 1478 | 1710 | 1674 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | #11 | 1533 | 1571 | 1492 |
| 2022-23 | Serie A | #1 | 1534 | 1764 | 1681 |
| 2021-22 | Serie A | #3 | 1520 | 1673 | 1645 |
| 2020-21 | Serie A | #2 | 1533 | 1696 | 1683 |
| 2019-20 | Serie A | #6 | 1529 | 1592 | 1589 |
| 2018-19 | Serie A | #3 | 1529 | 1677 | 1630 |
| 2017-18 | Serie A | #2 | 1533 | 1743 | 1704 |
| 2016-17 | Serie A | #1 | 1502 | 1768 | 1768 |
| 2015-16 | Serie A | #3 | 1482 | 1714 | 1656 |
| 2014-15 | Serie A | #7 | 1529 | 1622 | 1531 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Pisa | W Napoli 63.9% · draw 17.6% | W ✓ |
| May 11, 2026 | vs Bologna | W Napoli 60.1% · draw 20.0% | L ✗ |
| May 02, 2026 | at Como | L Napoli 30.7% · draw 23.4% | D ✗ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | vs Cremonese | W Napoli 69.0% · draw 16.2% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Lazio | W Napoli 65.2% · draw 17.9% | L ✗ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Parma | W Napoli 55.9% · draw 20.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Milan | W Napoli 50.4% · draw 23.3% | W ✓ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | at Cagliari | W Napoli 52.0% · draw 22.3% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Lecce | W Napoli 78.1% · draw 12.0% | W ✓ |
| Mar 06, 2026 | vs Torino | W Napoli 70.3% · draw 15.6% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/napoli">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/napoli">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>