Serie B 2026-2027: Arezzo vs Cremonese Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Arezzo

Home Team
31%
VS

Cremonese

Away Team
40%
Draw: 29%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 23.1
Expected Spread: -0.4

Why the Model Leans Cremonese

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Arezzo
Results & dominance +8.1 Cremonese
Defense +6.8 Cremonese
Attack +2.2 Cremonese
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.1 Cremonese

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Cremonese. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Arezzo defense +1.7 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.2 Over
Cremonese attack & chance creation +1.1 Under
Arezzo attack & chance creation +1.0 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Palermo 5 4 1 0 10 5 5 13
2 Sudtirol 5 3 2 0 9 3 6 11
3 Mantova 5 3 2 0 10 5 5 11
4 Modena 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
5 Ascoli 5 3 1 1 7 4 3 10
6 Verona 5 2 1 2 10 7 3 7
7 Avellino 5 2 1 2 7 6 1 7
8 Cesena 5 1 4 0 7 6 1 7
9 Benevento 5 2 1 2 6 5 1 7
10 Pisa 5 2 1 2 8 8 0 7
11 Padova 5 2 1 2 5 6 -1 7
12 Empoli 5 2 0 3 4 6 -2 6
13 Arezzo 5 2 0 3 6 13 -7 6
14 Virtus Entella 5 1 2 2 7 6 1 5
15 Cremonese 5 1 2 2 5 7 -2 5
16 Vicenza 5 1 2 2 7 10 -3 5
17 Juve Stabia 5 1 2 2 4 7 -3 5
18 Sampdoria 5 1 1 3 5 9 -4 4
19 Catanzaro 5 1 0 4 5 9 -4 3
20 Carrarese 5 0 1 4 2 6 -4 1

Recent Trends

Arezzo L W L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Sudtirol (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Empoli (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Verona (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Palermo (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Avellino (Goals: 2 - 1)

Cremonese D D W L L

  • Last Match: D vs Virtus Entella (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Cesena (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Padova (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Modena (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Empoli (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Arezzo

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 3.50
Clean Sheets 1

Cremonese

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.50
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Arezzo a 31% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 29% and Cremonese at 40%. This is a tight call, with Cremonese only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 55% and sees both teams scoring in 51% of cases.

Match Analysis

Arezzo arrive with 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWLLW from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 13 with 1 clean sheet. Cremonese arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DDWLL from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Arezzo sit 13th with 6 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -7, while Cremonese are 15th with 5 points and a goal difference of -2. That puts Arezzo 1 point clear of their opponent. Arezzo average 1.5 goals scored and 3.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Cremonese average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Arezzo), results & dominance (8.1 points toward Cremonese), defense (6.8 points toward Cremonese). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Arezzo
Goals in last 5 matches
Cremonese
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 55% and Over 2.5 at 45%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Arezzo matches produced 3.8 goals on average over their last 5, Cremonese matches 2.4. Both teams to score comes in at 51%, no goal for at least one side at 49%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Arezzo defense pulls toward Under by 1.7 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Arezzo
Corners in last 5 matches
Cremonese
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.3 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Arezzo
Shots in last 5 matches
Cremonese
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.1 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Arezzo wins by X goals. Negative = Cremonese wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Arezzo vs Cremonese with expected spread of -0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Arezzo vs Cremonese
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.4 goals in favour of Cremonese. The spread model gives 18% to a Arezzo win by two goals or more and 51% to any Cremonese win. A Cremonese win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Cremonese win (40%), Under 2.5 (55%), Goal (51%). Expected totals: 9.3 corners and 23.1 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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