Arezzo

Serie B · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1473 · #10 Serie B 2W-1D-3L · 7 pts Updated Oct 11, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #14 of 20 47.2 expected pts · currently 7 pts after 6 matches

League title 0.1%
Promotion 1.8%
Automatic promotion 0.6%
Promotion playoffs 16.7%
Relegation playout 14.8%
Relegation 21.2%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Serie B simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Arezzo?

Sample still small 2026-27 · 1 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Arezzo's results were 23.4% harder to call than the Serie B average. How this is measured.

MarketArezzoLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 0.0% 40.0%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 100.0% 70.0%
Both teams to score 0.0% 50.0%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Serie B #10 1529 1529 1473

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 vs Cremonese L Arezzo 30.6% · draw 29.0% D ✗

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