Serie B 2026-2027: Avellino vs Sampdoria Prediction - 9 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Avellino

Home Team
34%
VS

Sampdoria

Away Team
35%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 27.3
Expected Spread: -0.3

Why the Model Leans Sampdoria

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Avellino
Results & dominance +6.7 Sampdoria
Defense +6.0 Sampdoria
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.5 Avellino
Attack +3.4 Sampdoria

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Sampdoria. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Avellino attack & chance creation +2.2 Under
Sampdoria attack & chance creation +1.9 Over
Sampdoria defense +0.9 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Palermo 5 4 1 0 10 5 5 13
2 Sudtirol 5 3 2 0 9 3 6 11
3 Mantova 5 3 2 0 10 5 5 11
4 Modena 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
5 Ascoli 5 3 1 1 7 4 3 10
6 Verona 5 2 1 2 10 7 3 7
7 Avellino 5 2 1 2 7 6 1 7
8 Cesena 5 1 4 0 7 6 1 7
9 Benevento 5 2 1 2 6 5 1 7
10 Pisa 5 2 1 2 8 8 0 7
11 Padova 5 2 1 2 5 6 -1 7
12 Empoli 5 2 0 3 4 6 -2 6
13 Arezzo 5 2 0 3 6 13 -7 6
14 Virtus Entella 5 1 2 2 7 6 1 5
15 Cremonese 5 1 2 2 5 7 -2 5
16 Vicenza 5 1 2 2 7 10 -3 5
17 Juve Stabia 5 1 2 2 4 7 -3 5
18 Sampdoria 5 1 1 3 5 9 -4 4
19 Catanzaro 5 1 0 4 5 9 -4 3
20 Carrarese 5 0 1 4 2 6 -4 1

Recent Trends

Avellino L D W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Ascoli (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Palermo (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Modena (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Vicenza (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Arezzo (Goals: 1 - 2)

Sampdoria W L L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Catanzaro (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Mantova (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Palermo (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Juve Stabia (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Cesena (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Avellino

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.67
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 2

Sampdoria

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.67
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Avellino a 34% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Sampdoria at 35%. This is a tight call, with Sampdoria only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 54% of cases.

Match Analysis

Avellino arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDWWL from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 6 with 2 clean sheets. Sampdoria arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (WLLLD from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 9 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Avellino sit 7th with 7 points from 5 games and a goal difference of +1, while Sampdoria are 18th with 4 points and a goal difference of -4. That puts Avellino 3 points clear of their opponent. Avellino average 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Sampdoria average 0.7 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Avellino), results & dominance (6.7 points toward Sampdoria), defense (6.0 points toward Sampdoria). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Avellino
Goals in last 5 matches
Sampdoria
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 53% and Over 2.5 at 47%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Avellino matches produced 2.6 goals on average over their last 5, Sampdoria matches 2.8. Both teams to score comes in at 54%, no goal for at least one side at 46%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Avellino attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 2.2 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Avellino
Corners in last 5 matches
Sampdoria
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.6 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Avellino
Shots in last 5 matches
Sampdoria
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 27.3 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 27. The chance of 27 shots or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 28 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Avellino wins by X goals. Negative = Sampdoria wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Avellino vs Sampdoria with expected spread of -0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Avellino vs Sampdoria
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.3 goals in favour of Sampdoria. The spread model gives 18% to a Avellino win by two goals or more and 50% to any Sampdoria win. A Sampdoria win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Sampdoria win (35%), Under 2.5 (53%), Goal (54%). Expected totals: 9.6 corners and 27.3 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel