Avellino
Serie B · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #8 of 20 in Serie B 49 pts · 13W–10D–15L · GD -12
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie B simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Avellino?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 33 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Avellino's results were 1.6% easier to call than the Serie B average. How this is measured.
| Market | Avellino | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 42.4% | 49.7% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | 54.2% |
| Both teams to score | 45.5% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie B | #8 | 1480 | 1554 | 1498 |
| 2017-18 | Serie B | #14 | 1518 | 1536 | 1458 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 08, 2026 | vs Modena | L Avellino 32.0% · draw 30.4% | W ✗ |
| May 01, 2026 | at Empoli | L Avellino 27.6% · draw 30.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | vs Bari | W Avellino 57.1% · draw 24.1% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Mantova | L Avellino 23.7% · draw 28.7% | W ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Catanzaro | L Avellino 31.7% · draw 30.0% | D ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Palermo | L Avellino 8.7% · draw 17.7% | L ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | at Sampdoria | L Avellino 27.4% · draw 31.7% | L ✓ |
| Mar 18, 2026 | vs Sudtirol | L Avellino 33.1% · draw 31.0% | W ✗ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | at Virtus Entella | L Avellino 32.8% · draw 32.9% | W ✗ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | vs Padova | W Avellino 39.5% · draw 31.0% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/avellino">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/avellino">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>