Serie B 2026-2027: Benevento vs Cesena Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Benevento

Home Team
47%
VS

Cesena

Away Team
24%
Draw: 29%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 25.7
Expected Spread: +0.6

Why the Model Leans Benevento

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Benevento
Attack +4.1 Benevento
Results & dominance +2.4 Benevento
Defense +2.1 Benevento
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.9 Cesena

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 66% for Benevento. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Cesena defense +1.8 Over
Cesena attack & chance creation +1.3 Under
Form & results +0.8 Over
Benevento attack & chance creation +0.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Palermo 5 4 1 0 10 5 5 13
2 Sudtirol 5 3 2 0 9 3 6 11
3 Mantova 5 3 2 0 10 5 5 11
4 Modena 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
5 Ascoli 5 3 1 1 7 4 3 10
6 Verona 5 2 1 2 10 7 3 7
7 Avellino 5 2 1 2 7 6 1 7
8 Cesena 5 1 4 0 7 6 1 7
9 Benevento 5 2 1 2 6 5 1 7
10 Pisa 5 2 1 2 8 8 0 7
11 Padova 5 2 1 2 5 6 -1 7
12 Empoli 5 2 0 3 4 6 -2 6
13 Arezzo 5 2 0 3 6 13 -7 6
14 Virtus Entella 5 1 2 2 7 6 1 5
15 Cremonese 5 1 2 2 5 7 -2 5
16 Vicenza 5 1 2 2 7 10 -3 5
17 Juve Stabia 5 1 2 2 4 7 -3 5
18 Sampdoria 5 1 1 3 5 9 -4 4
19 Catanzaro 5 1 0 4 5 9 -4 3
20 Carrarese 5 0 1 4 2 6 -4 1

Recent Trends

Benevento W W L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Carrarese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Ascoli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sudtirol (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Modena (Goals: 1 - 2)

Cesena D D D W D

  • Last Match: D vs Juve Stabia (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Mantova (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Virtus Entella (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sampdoria (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Benevento

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.67
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.33
Clean Sheets 1

Cesena

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.00
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Benevento a 47% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 29% and Cesena at 24%. Benevento are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Benevento arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WWLDL from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 5 with 1 clean sheet. Cesena arrive with 1 win, 4 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (DDDWD from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 6 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Benevento sit 9th with 7 points from 5 games and a goal difference of +1, while Cesena are 8th with 7 points and a goal difference of +1. The two sides are level on points. Benevento average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five home games, while Cesena average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Benevento), attack (4.1 points toward Benevento), results & dominance (2.4 points toward Benevento). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Benevento
Goals in last 5 matches
Cesena
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 51% and Over 2.5 at 49%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Benevento matches produced 2.2 goals on average over their last 5, Cesena matches 2.6. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Cesena defense pulls toward Over by 1.8 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Benevento
Corners in last 5 matches
Cesena
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.6 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Benevento
Shots in last 5 matches
Cesena
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.7 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Benevento wins by X goals. Negative = Cesena wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Benevento vs Cesena with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Benevento vs Cesena
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.6 goals in favour of Benevento. The spread model gives 29% to a Benevento win by two goals or more and 35% to any Cesena win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Benevento win (47%), Under 2.5 (51%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.6 corners and 25.7 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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