Benevento

Serie B · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1462 · #12 Serie B 3W-1D-2L · 10 pts Updated Oct 11, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #8 of 20 53.8 expected pts · currently 10 pts after 6 matches

League title 1.3%
Promotion 10.5%
Automatic promotion 4.8%
Promotion playoffs 45.9%
Relegation playout 5.5%
Relegation 3.9%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Serie B simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Benevento?

Sample still small 2026-27 · 1 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Benevento's results were 31.4% easier to call than the Serie B average. How this is measured.

MarketBeneventoLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 100.0% 40.0%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 100.0% 70.0%
Both teams to score 0.0% 50.0%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Serie B #12 1392 1462 1462
2022-23 Serie B #20 1492 1555 1394
2021-22 Serie B #9 1641 1668 1535
2020-21 Serie A #18 1527 1527 1331
2019-20 Serie B #1 1562 1770 1665
2018-19 Serie B #4 1498 1591 1577
2017-18 Serie A #18 1454 1454 1354

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 vs Cesena W Benevento 47.0% · draw 29.1% W ✓

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