Cesena
Serie B · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #10 of 20 in Serie B 46 pts · 12W–10D–16L · GD -11
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie B simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Cesena?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 33 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Cesena's results were 6.2% harder to call than the Serie B average. How this is measured.
| Market | Cesena | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 42.4% | 49.7% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | 54.2% |
| Both teams to score | 42.4% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie B | #20 | 1533 | 1583 | 1395 |
| 2024-25 | Serie B | #6 | 1540 | 1554 | 1547 |
| 2017-18 | Serie B | #9 | 1478 | 1530 | 1530 |
| 2014-15 | Serie A | #21 | 1518 | 1518 | 1294 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 08, 2026 | vs Padova | W Cesena 50.1% · draw 29.4% | L ✗ |
| May 01, 2026 | at Carrarese | L Cesena 30.9% · draw 31.0% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Sampdoria | W Cesena 36.1% · draw 31.6% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Palermo | L Cesena 15.5% · draw 24.1% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Juve Stabia | L Cesena 31.0% · draw 31.6% | L ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Sudtirol | L Cesena 33.8% · draw 31.2% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Catanzaro | L Cesena 32.0% · draw 29.9% | W ✗ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Mantova | L Cesena 31.6% · draw 31.4% | L ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Frosinone | L Cesena 27.1% · draw 28.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | at Modena | L Cesena 25.7% · draw 28.9% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/cesena">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/cesena">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>