Serie B 2026-2027: Empoli vs Palermo Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Empoli

Home Team
25%
VS

Palermo

Away Team
49%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 26.0
Expected Spread: -0.5

Why the Model Leans Palermo

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Empoli
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +8.8 Palermo
Results & dominance +8.3 Palermo
Defense +6.3 Palermo
Attack +3.4 Palermo

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 66% for Palermo. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Empoli attack & chance creation +2.8 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Palermo defense +2.5 Over
Empoli defense +1.0 Under
Form & results +1.0 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Palermo 5 4 1 0 10 5 5 13
2 Sudtirol 5 3 2 0 9 3 6 11
3 Mantova 5 3 2 0 10 5 5 11
4 Modena 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
5 Ascoli 5 3 1 1 7 4 3 10
6 Verona 5 2 1 2 10 7 3 7
7 Avellino 5 2 1 2 7 6 1 7
8 Cesena 5 1 4 0 7 6 1 7
9 Benevento 5 2 1 2 6 5 1 7
10 Pisa 5 2 1 2 8 8 0 7
11 Padova 5 2 1 2 5 6 -1 7
12 Empoli 5 2 0 3 4 6 -2 6
13 Arezzo 5 2 0 3 6 13 -7 6
14 Virtus Entella 5 1 2 2 7 6 1 5
15 Cremonese 5 1 2 2 5 7 -2 5
16 Vicenza 5 1 2 2 7 10 -3 5
17 Juve Stabia 5 1 2 2 4 7 -3 5
18 Sampdoria 5 1 1 3 5 9 -4 4
19 Catanzaro 5 1 0 4 5 9 -4 3
20 Carrarese 5 0 1 4 2 6 -4 1

Recent Trends

Empoli L L W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Modena (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Arezzo (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Carrarese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Mantova (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 1 - 0)

Palermo W D W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Padova (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Avellino (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sampdoria (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Arezzo (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Juve Stabia (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Empoli

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.50
Clean Sheets 2

Palermo

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.50
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Empoli a 25% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 26% and Palermo at 49%. Palermo are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 55% and sees both teams scoring in 54% of cases.

Match Analysis

Empoli arrive with 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLWLW from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 6 with 2 clean sheets. Palermo arrive with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WDWWW from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 5 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Empoli sit 12th with 6 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -2, while Palermo are 1st with 13 points and a goal difference of +5. That puts Palermo 7 points clear of their opponent. Empoli average 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Palermo average 2.0 scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Empoli), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (8.8 points toward Palermo), results & dominance (8.3 points toward Palermo). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Empoli
Goals in last 5 matches
Palermo
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 55% and Over 2.5 at 45%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Empoli matches produced 2.0 goals on average over their last 5, Palermo matches 3.0. Both teams to score comes in at 54%, no goal for at least one side at 46%. In the model's own attribution, Empoli attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 2.8 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Empoli
Corners in last 5 matches
Palermo
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.6 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Empoli
Shots in last 5 matches
Palermo
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 26.0 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 47%, which leaves 52% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Empoli wins by X goals. Negative = Palermo wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Empoli vs Palermo with expected spread of -0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Empoli vs Palermo
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.5 goals in favour of Palermo. The spread model gives 16% to a Empoli win by two goals or more and 53% to any Palermo win. A Palermo win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Palermo win (49%), Under 2.5 (55%), Goal (54%). Expected totals: 9.6 corners and 26.0 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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