Palermo
Serie B · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #4 of 20 in Serie B 72 pts · 20W–12D–6L · GD +28
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie B simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Palermo?
On script 2025-26 · 33 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Palermo's results were 13.6% easier to call than the Serie B average. How this is measured.
| Market | Palermo | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 60.6% | 49.7% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | 54.2% |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie B | #4 | 1518 | 1643 | 1626 |
| 2024-25 | Serie B | #8 | 1475 | 1582 | 1535 |
| 2023-24 | Serie B | #11 | 1530 | 1625 | 1489 |
| 2022-23 | Serie B | #8 | 1596 | 1597 | 1530 |
| 2018-19 | Serie B | #3 | 1572 | 1647 | 1597 |
| 2017-18 | Serie B | #3 | 1520 | 1628 | 1591 |
| 2016-17 | Serie A | #19 | 1471 | 1475 | 1348 |
| 2015-16 | Serie A | #15 | 1518 | 1548 | 1430 |
| 2014-15 | Serie A | #14 | 1498 | 1542 | 1489 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 08, 2026 | at Venezia | L Palermo 18.2% · draw 26.7% | L ✓ |
| May 01, 2026 | vs Catanzaro | W Palermo 59.3% · draw 24.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Reggiana | W Palermo 56.7% · draw 22.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Cesena | W Palermo 60.4% · draw 24.1% | W ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at Frosinone | L Palermo 28.0% · draw 29.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | vs Avellino | W Palermo 73.6% · draw 17.7% | W ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Padova | W Palermo 56.5% · draw 22.6% | W ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs Juve Stabia | W Palermo 56.6% · draw 25.1% | D ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Monza | L Palermo 30.7% · draw 30.3% | L ✓ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | at Carrarese | W Palermo 43.6% · draw 28.4% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/palermo">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/palermo">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>