Empoli
Serie B · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #15 of 20 in Serie B 41 pts · 9W–14D–15L · GD -7
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie B simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Empoli?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 33 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Empoli's results were 5.6% harder to call than the Serie B average. How this is measured.
| Market | Empoli | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 42.4% | 49.7% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 54.2% |
| Both teams to score | 63.6% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie B | #14 | 1520 | 1542 | 1444 |
| 2024-25 | Serie A | #19 | 1498 | 1551 | 1348 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | #13 | 1471 | 1471 | 1452 |
| 2022-23 | Serie A | #13 | 1482 | 1536 | 1460 |
| 2021-22 | Serie A | #14 | 1467 | 1548 | 1431 |
| 2020-21 | Serie B | #1 | 1550 | 1703 | 1649 |
| 2019-20 | Serie B | #10 | 1681 | 1710 | 1524 |
| 2018-19 | Serie A | #12 | 1520 | 1520 | 1468 |
| 2017-18 | Serie B | #1 | 1502 | 1731 | 1717 |
| 2016-17 | Serie A | #18 | 1471 | 1472 | 1366 |
| 2015-16 | Serie A | #14 | 1467 | 1553 | 1445 |
| 2014-15 | Serie A | #15 | 1454 | 1545 | 1476 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 08, 2026 | at Monza | L Empoli 11.3% · draw 19.3% | D ✗ |
| May 01, 2026 | vs Avellino | W Empoli 42.1% · draw 30.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Venezia | L Empoli 7.8% · draw 15.2% | L ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Virtus Entella | W Empoli 40.3% · draw 29.9% | D ✗ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Padova | W Empoli 42.2% · draw 27.7% | L ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Sampdoria | L Empoli 30.7% · draw 31.3% | L ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Pescara | W Empoli 47.1% · draw 27.7% | W ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Spezia | L Empoli 32.1% · draw 30.2% | D ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Mantova | W Empoli 38.5% · draw 30.3% | D ✗ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | at Catanzaro | L Empoli 31.9% · draw 31.0% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/empoli">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/empoli">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>