Serie B 2026-2027: Modena vs Verona Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Modena

Home Team
40%
VS

Verona

Away Team
30%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 27.1
Expected Spread: +0.3

Why the Model Leans Modena

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Modena
Results & dominance +2.6 Verona
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.8 Modena
Attack +1.2 Verona

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Modena. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Modena attack & chance creation +2.5 Over
Modena defense +2.0 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Palermo 5 4 1 0 10 5 5 13
2 Sudtirol 5 3 2 0 9 3 6 11
3 Mantova 5 3 2 0 10 5 5 11
4 Modena 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
5 Ascoli 5 3 1 1 7 4 3 10
6 Verona 5 2 1 2 10 7 3 7
7 Avellino 5 2 1 2 7 6 1 7
8 Cesena 5 1 4 0 7 6 1 7
9 Benevento 5 2 1 2 6 5 1 7
10 Pisa 5 2 1 2 8 8 0 7
11 Padova 5 2 1 2 5 6 -1 7
12 Empoli 5 2 0 3 4 6 -2 6
13 Arezzo 5 2 0 3 6 13 -7 6
14 Virtus Entella 5 1 2 2 7 6 1 5
15 Cremonese 5 1 2 2 5 7 -2 5
16 Vicenza 5 1 2 2 7 10 -3 5
17 Juve Stabia 5 1 2 2 4 7 -3 5
18 Sampdoria 5 1 1 3 5 9 -4 4
19 Catanzaro 5 1 0 4 5 9 -4 3
20 Carrarese 5 0 1 4 2 6 -4 1

Recent Trends

Modena W D L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Empoli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sudtirol (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Avellino (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Benevento (Goals: 2 - 1)

Verona W L W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Vicenza (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Benevento (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Arezzo (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Padova (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Ascoli (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Modena

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Verona

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Modena a 40% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Verona at 30%. This is a tight call, with Modena only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 57% of cases.

Match Analysis

Modena arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WDLWW from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 4 with 1 clean sheet. Verona arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WLWDL from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Modena sit 4th with 10 points from 5 games and a goal difference of +4, while Verona are 6th with 7 points and a goal difference of +3. That puts Modena 3 points clear of their opponent. Modena average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Verona average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Modena), results & dominance (2.6 points toward Verona), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (1.8 points toward Modena). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Modena
Goals in last 5 matches
Verona
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 52% and Over 2.5 at 48%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Modena matches produced 2.4 goals on average over their last 5, Verona matches 3.4. Both teams to score comes in at 57%, no goal for at least one side at 43%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Modena attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 2.5 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Modena
Corners in last 5 matches
Verona
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.3 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Modena
Shots in last 5 matches
Verona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 27.1 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 27. The chance of 27 shots or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 28 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Modena wins by X goals. Negative = Verona wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Modena vs Verona with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Modena vs Verona
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.3 goals in favour of Modena. The spread model gives 26% to a Modena win by two goals or more and 40% to any Verona win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Modena win (40%), Under 2.5 (52%), Goal (57%). Expected totals: 9.3 corners and 27.1 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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