Modena
Serie B · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #6 of 20 in Serie B 55 pts · 15W–10D–13L · GD +13
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie B simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Modena?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 33 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Modena's results were 9.2% harder to call than the Serie B average. How this is measured.
| Market | Modena | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 33.3% | 49.7% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | 54.2% |
| Both teams to score | 42.4% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie B | #9 | 1533 | 1608 | 1478 |
| 2024-25 | Serie B | #18 | 1461 | 1559 | 1466 |
| 2023-24 | Serie B | #16 | 1521 | 1576 | 1472 |
| 2022-23 | Serie B | #10 | 1472 | 1568 | 1508 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 08, 2026 | at Avellino | W Modena 37.6% · draw 30.4% | L ✗ |
| May 01, 2026 | vs Reggiana | W Modena 68.0% · draw 20.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | at Monza | L Modena 22.4% · draw 27.8% | L ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Frosinone | W Modena 36.4% · draw 31.5% | L ✗ |
| Apr 14, 2026 | at Catanzaro | W Modena 38.3% · draw 30.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Sudtirol | W Modena 39.2% · draw 30.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Bari | W Modena 53.5% · draw 24.5% | L ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Mantova | W Modena 59.0% · draw 24.7% | W ✓ |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vs Spezia | W Modena 63.4% · draw 22.8% | W ✓ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | vs Cesena | W Modena 45.4% · draw 28.9% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/modena">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/modena">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>