Serie B 2026-2027: Padova vs Carrarese Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Padova

Home Team
36%
VS

Carrarese

Away Team
32%
Draw: 32%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 28.1
Expected Spread: +0.0

Why the Model Leans Padova

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Padova
Results & dominance +5.1 Carrarese
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.9 Padova
Attack +2.8 Carrarese
Defense +1.7 Carrarese

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Padova. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Padova attack & chance creation +2.5 Under
Carrarese defense +2.1 Over
Padova defense +1.4 Over
Carrarese attack & chance creation +0.6 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Palermo 5 4 1 0 10 5 5 13
2 Sudtirol 5 3 2 0 9 3 6 11
3 Mantova 5 3 2 0 10 5 5 11
4 Modena 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
5 Ascoli 5 3 1 1 7 4 3 10
6 Verona 5 2 1 2 10 7 3 7
7 Avellino 5 2 1 2 7 6 1 7
8 Cesena 5 1 4 0 7 6 1 7
9 Benevento 5 2 1 2 6 5 1 7
10 Pisa 5 2 1 2 8 8 0 7
11 Padova 5 2 1 2 5 6 -1 7
12 Empoli 5 2 0 3 4 6 -2 6
13 Arezzo 5 2 0 3 6 13 -7 6
14 Virtus Entella 5 1 2 2 7 6 1 5
15 Cremonese 5 1 2 2 5 7 -2 5
16 Vicenza 5 1 2 2 7 10 -3 5
17 Juve Stabia 5 1 2 2 4 7 -3 5
18 Sampdoria 5 1 1 3 5 9 -4 4
19 Catanzaro 5 1 0 4 5 9 -4 3
20 Carrarese 5 0 1 4 2 6 -4 1

Recent Trends

Padova L W L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Palermo (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Ascoli (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Cremonese (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)

Carrarese L L L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Benevento (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Catanzaro (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Empoli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Ascoli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Mantova (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Padova

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.50
Clean Sheets 2

Carrarese

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.00
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Padova a 36% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 32% and Carrarese at 32%. This is a tight call, with Padova only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Padova arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWLDW from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 6 with 2 clean sheets. Carrarese arrive with 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLLDL from most recent), scoring 2 and conceding 6 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Padova sit 11th with 7 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -1, while Carrarese are 20th with 1 point and a goal difference of -4. That puts Padova 6 points clear of their opponent. Padova average 1.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Carrarese average 0.5 scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Padova), results & dominance (5.1 points toward Carrarese), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (2.9 points toward Padova). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Padova
Goals in last 5 matches
Carrarese
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 52% and Over 2.5 at 48%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Padova matches produced 2.2 goals on average over their last 5, Carrarese matches 1.6. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Padova attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 2.5 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Padova
Corners in last 5 matches
Carrarese
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.1 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 58%, which leaves 42% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Padova
Shots in last 5 matches
Carrarese
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 28.1 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 28. The chance of 28 shots or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 29 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Padova wins by X goals. Negative = Carrarese wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Padova vs Carrarese with expected spread of +0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Padova vs Carrarese
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.0 goals in favour of Padova. The spread model gives 23% to a Padova win by two goals or more and 44% to any Carrarese win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Padova win (36%), Under 2.5 (52%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 10.1 corners and 28.1 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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