Carrarese
Serie B · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #12 of 20 in Serie B 44 pts · 10W–14D–14L · GD -5
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie B simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Carrarese?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 33 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Carrarese's results were 3.9% easier to call than the Serie B average. How this is measured.
| Market | Carrarese | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 60.6% | 49.7% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | 54.2% |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie B | #15 | 1533 | 1545 | 1443 |
| 2024-25 | Serie B | #16 | 1484 | 1534 | 1477 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 08, 2026 | at Virtus Entella | L Carrarese 32.4% · draw 31.4% | L ✓ |
| May 01, 2026 | vs Cesena | W Carrarese 38.1% · draw 31.0% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Frosinone | L Carrarese 19.7% · draw 24.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Pescara | W Carrarese 46.6% · draw 28.9% | D ✗ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Reggiana | W Carrarese 43.5% · draw 28.2% | L ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Spezia | W Carrarese 49.3% · draw 28.6% | W ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | at Bari | W Carrarese 41.3% · draw 29.5% | W ✓ |
| Mar 18, 2026 | vs Sampdoria | W Carrarese 41.4% · draw 30.2% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Juve Stabia | L Carrarese 28.8% · draw 29.9% | D ✗ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | vs Palermo | L Carrarese 28.0% · draw 28.4% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/carrarese">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/carrarese">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>