Padova

Serie B · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1460 · #13 Serie B 2W-1D-3L · 7 pts In line Updated Oct 11, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #13 of 20 47.3 expected pts · currently 7 pts after 6 matches

League title 0.1%
Promotion 2.0%
Automatic promotion 0.7%
Promotion playoffs 17.6%
Relegation playout 15.3%
Relegation 19.5%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Serie B simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Padova?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 33 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Padova's results were 0.9% harder to call than the Serie B average. How this is measured.

MarketPadovaLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 51.5% 49.7%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 48.5% 54.2%
Both teams to score 39.4% 52.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Serie B #13 1519 1519 1460
2025-26 Serie B #10 1480 1517 1475
2018-19 Serie B #16 1502 1525 1435

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 11, 2026 vs Carrarese W Padova 36.0% · draw 31.6% L ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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