Padova
Serie B · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #9 of 20 in Serie B 46 pts · 12W–10D–16L · GD -10
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie B simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Padova?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 33 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Padova's results were 0.9% harder to call than the Serie B average. How this is measured.
| Market | Padova | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 51.5% | 49.7% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | 54.2% |
| Both teams to score | 39.4% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie B | #10 | 1480 | 1517 | 1475 |
| 2018-19 | Serie B | #16 | 1502 | 1525 | 1435 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 08, 2026 | at Cesena | L Padova 20.4% · draw 29.4% | W ✗ |
| May 01, 2026 | vs Pescara | W Padova 35.6% · draw 32.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Virtus Entella | L Padova 19.8% · draw 28.2% | L ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Reggiana | W Padova 39.0% · draw 30.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Empoli | L Padova 30.1% · draw 27.7% | W ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Frosinone | L Padova 7.2% · draw 13.3% | L ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Palermo | L Padova 20.9% · draw 22.6% | L ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Venezia | L Padova 4.1% · draw 10.0% | L ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Catanzaro | L Padova 30.1% · draw 29.3% | L ✓ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | at Avellino | L Padova 29.4% · draw 31.0% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/padova">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/padova">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>