NBA 2025-2026: New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
New Orleans Pelicans
Home Team
53.2%
VS
Miami Heat
Away Team
46.8%
Key Prediction Insights
The model projects the New Orleans Pelicans to win this one with a 53.2% probability. Expected starters — New Orleans: Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson, Derik Queen; Miami: Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio, Bam Adebayo, Kel'el Ware.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The combined scoring expectation is 231.84 points, which points toward a fairly high-scoring, uptempo game rather than a defensive slugfest. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -0.27, a hair favoring the away team by about a quarter point. Note: the win probability and the spread come from two separate models (one predicts winner probability, another predicts the point spread); both are shown for transparency even though they point in slightly different directions.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
231.8
Most likely outcome: 231 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (New Orleans Pelicans - Miami Heat)
-0.3
Most likely outcome: -1 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
New Orleans arrives with two wins in their last three: a 120-94 victory over Sacramento and a 119-115 win at Minnesota, with a 137-141 loss to Milwaukee in a shootout. That sequence suggests the Pelicans can score in bunches but were also involved in a high-scoring loss. Miami’s last three are more mixed: a 111-115 loss at Utah, a dominant 132-101 win over Washington, and a tight 96-98 loss to Boston — signs of streaky offense and some close finishes.
Looking at the expected fives, New Orleans’ starters average an offensive rating of 115.26, defensive rating of 118.40, and about 16.29 points made per starter. Miami’s projected starters average offensive 114.78, defensive 111.76, and about 12.61 points made per starter. Those numbers suggest similar offensive firepower on paper, but Miami’s starters collectively show a cleaner defensive profile while New Orleans brings a bit more scoring from its primary rotation.
Final Prediction
New Orleans gets the narrow edge in the win-probability model thanks to recent scoring form and depth from their starting five. Key factor to watch: which team controls the paint and finishing around the rim — those points could swing a game projected this close.
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